Counter-Strike: Brute vs ILLYRIANS - Map 2 Winner

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold ILLYRIANS (50%) · ILLYRIANS at 91¢ · $116 held · ends Nov 10

Brute9¢ILLYRIANS91¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

ILLYRIANS

Consensus Traders

ILLYRIANS 50%

Total Value

$116.12

Combined PnL

$40.71

Research grade

NeutralILLYRIANS at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

ILLYRIANS

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Brute9%

ILLYRIANS91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

ILLYRIANS2 traders

Total Value$109.76

Total Shares107

Combined PnL+$74.32

Brute2 traders

Total Value$6.35

Total Shares71

Combined PnL-$33.61

ILLYRIANS — 50%Brute — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LR lryyy<$100	ILLYRIANSavg 47¢	$31.25	$57.37	+$26.12	50% 128-129 (257)
alpheclabs2<$100	ILLYRIANSavg 8¢	$4.2	$52.39	+$48.19	48% 66-71 (137)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Bruteavg 61¢	$36.97	$5.45	-$31.51	22% 81-290 (371)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Bruteavg 30¢	$3	$0.9	-$2.1	68% 1590-739 (2329)

lryyy<$100

ILLYRIANS

Invested

$31.25

Value

$57.37

PnL

+$26.12

Record

50%

128-129 (257)

alpheclabs2<$100

ILLYRIANS

Invested

$4.2

Value

$52.39

PnL

+$48.19

Record

48%

66-71 (137)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Brute

Invested

$36.97

Value

$5.45

PnL

-$31.51

Record

22%

81-290 (371)

RLWGCTR<$100

Brute

Invested

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$2.1

Record

68%

1590-739 (2329)

Research grade

NeutralILLYRIANS at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

ILLYRIANS

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that ILLYRIANS wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.