Counter-Strike: Team Bratishkin vs Team Recrent - Map 1 Winner

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Team Bratishkin (63%) · Team Bratishkin at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Team Bratishkin>99¢Team Recrent<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Bratishkin

Consensus Traders

Team Bratishkin 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$108.16

Smart Money Entry

87.6¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Bratishkin at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Bratishkin

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team Bratishkin100%

Team Recrent0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Bratishkin5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,202

Combined PnL+$148.66

Team Recrent3 traders

Total Value$0.05

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$40.5

Team Bratishkin — 63%Team Recrent — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Team Bratishkin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTeam Bratishkin 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTeam Bratishkin 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Team Bratishkin 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VP Vps1	Team Bratishkinavg 99.9¢	$769.3	$769.68	+$0.39	88% 101-14 (115)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Team Bratishkinavg 50¢	$262.5	$354.11	+$91.61	55% 499-416 (915)
└ Team Bratishkin leg	Team Bratishkinavg 50¢	$131.25	$262.24	+$130.99
└ Team Recrent leg	Team Recrentavg 50¢	$131.25	$91.88	-$39.37
iceblue-	Team Bratishkinavg 57.1¢	$190.89	$334.09	+$143.2	48% 22-24 (46)
SH shiifoo<$100	Team Bratishkinavg 96¢	$87.69	$91.29	+$3.61	62% 1371-836 (2207)
AN anon122<$100	Team Bratishkinavg 91¢	$4.55	$4.99	+$0.44	— 0-6 (6)
poshposh<$100	Team Bratishkinavg 20¢	$0.26	$1.27	+$1.02	48% 590-645 (1235)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Team Recrentavg 46.1¢	$26.76	$0.03	-$26.74	33% 327-665 (992)
AN anyjezzCTR<$100	Team Recrentavg 47¢	$9.93	$0.01	-$9.92	26% 7-20 (27)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Team Recrentavg 35¢	$3.85	$0.01	-$3.84	44% 431-541 (972)

Vps1

Team Bratishkin

Invested

$769.3

Value

$769.68

PnL

+$0.39

Record

88%

101-14 (115)

NotJumpARB<$100

Team Bratishkin

Invested

$262.5

Value

$354.11

PnL

+$91.61

Record

55%

499-416 (915)

Both legs:

Team Bratishkin$131.2550¢+$130.99

Team Recrent$131.2550¢-$39.37

iceblue-

Team Bratishkin

Invested

$190.89

Value

$334.09

PnL

+$143.2

Record

48%

22-24 (46)

shiifoo<$100

Team Bratishkin

Invested

$87.69

Value

$91.29

PnL

+$3.61

Record

62%

1371-836 (2207)

anon122<$100

Team Bratishkin

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.44

Record

—

0-6 (6)

poshposh<$100

Team Bratishkin

Invested

$0.26

Value

$1.27

PnL

+$1.02

Record

48%

590-645 (1235)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Team Recrent

Invested

$26.76

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$26.74

Record

33%

327-665 (992)

anyjezzCTR<$100

Team Recrent

Invested

$9.93

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$9.92

Record

26%

7-20 (27)

lryyyCTR<$100

Team Recrent

Invested

$3.85

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.84

Record

44%

431-541 (972)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Bratishkin at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Team Bratishkin

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Team Bratishkin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTeam Bratishkin 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTeam Bratishkin 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Team Bratishkin 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Bratishkin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.