Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Recrent, while the market favors Team Bratishkin (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Team Bratishkin vs Team Recrent (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group B

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Team Recrent (88%) · Team Recrent at 0.1¢ · $315 held · ends Nov 13

Team Bratishkin>99¢Team Recrent<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Team Recrent

Consensus Traders

Team Recrent 88%

Total Value

$314.64

Combined PnL

-$101.48

Smart Money Entry

29.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidTeam Recrent at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Recrent

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Team Bratishkin 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Team Bratishkin100%

Team Recrent0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Recrent7 traders

Total Value$291.88

Total Shares896

Combined PnL-$102.28

Team Bratishkin1 trader

Total Value$22.76

Total Shares23

Combined PnL+$0.8

Team Recrent — 88%Team Bratishkin — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Team Recrent. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam Recrent 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Team Recrent 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Team Recrentavg 50¢	$262.5	$271.69	+$9.19	55% 499-416 (915)
CI cigarettes<$100	Team Bratishkinavg 96.4¢	$21.96	$22.76	+$0.8	53% 6251-5536 (11787)
38 38791873984189CTR	Team Recrentavg 41.3¢	$223.2	$9.97	-$33.04	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Team Recrentavg 41¢	$17.77	$9.18	-$8.59	49% 1088-1142 (2230)
poshposhCTR<$100	Team Recrentavg 5¢	$1.15	$0.82	-$0.32	48% 590-645 (1235)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Team Recrentavg 17.2¢	$54.08	$0.16	-$53.92	62% 1371-836 (2207)
US User7429CTR<$100	Team Recrentavg 16¢	$13.76	$0.04	-$13.72	34% 207-400 (607)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Team Recrentavg 3.6¢	$1.9	$0.03	-$1.87	47% 1704-1945 (3649)

NotJumpCTR

Team Recrent

Invested

$262.5

Value

$271.69

PnL

+$9.19

Record

55%

499-416 (915)

cigarettes<$100

Team Bratishkin

Invested

$21.96

Value

$22.76

PnL

+$0.8

Record

53%

6251-5536 (11787)

38791873984189CTR

Team Recrent

Invested

$223.2

Value

$9.97

PnL

-$33.04

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Team Recrent

Invested

$17.77

Value

$9.18

PnL

-$8.59

Record

49%

1088-1142 (2230)

poshposhCTR<$100

Team Recrent

Invested

$1.15

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$0.32

Record

48%

590-645 (1235)

shiifooCTR<$100

Team Recrent

Invested

$54.08

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$53.92

Record

62%

1371-836 (2207)

User7429CTR<$100

Team Recrent

Invested

$13.76

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$13.72

Record

34%

207-400 (607)

suntoriCTR<$100

Team Recrent

Invested

$1.9

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.87

Record

47%

1704-1945 (3649)

Research grade

AvoidTeam Recrent at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Team Recrent

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Team Bratishkin 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Team Recrent. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam Recrent 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Team Recrent 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Recrent wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.