Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Teletubisie (BO1) - Circuito Retake Group B

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Teletubisie (29%) · Teletubisie at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30

BASEMENT BOYS<1¢Teletubisie>99¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Teletubisie

Consensus Traders

Teletubisie 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$550.66

Smart Money Entry

99¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeletubisie at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Teletubisie

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

BASEMENT BOYS0%

Teletubisie100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Teletubisie2 traders

Total Value$467.5

Total Shares1,062

Combined PnL-$584.3

BASEMENT BOYS5 traders

Total Value$554.35

Total Shares1,084

Combined PnL+$33.64

Teletubisie — 29%BASEMENT BOYS — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VP Vps1	Teletubisieavg 99.9¢	$1.0K	$443.82	-$563.86	96% 291-13 (304)
38 38791873984189CTR	BASEMENT BOYSavg 56.6¢	$439.1	$379.98	-$59.12	46% 7901-9318 (17219)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Teletubisieavg 68.8¢	$293.75	$294.2	+$0.45	53% 2364-2080 (4444)
└ BASEMENT BOYS leg	BASEMENT BOYSavg 28.2¢	$78.89	$156.75	+$77.87
└ Teletubisie leg	Teletubisieavg 68.8¢	$214.86	$137.44	-$77.42
TO topdogbigboiCTR	BASEMENT BOYSavg 21.7¢	$46.47	$116.99	+$70.52	38% 3184-5178 (8362)
poshposhCTR<$100	BASEMENT BOYSavg 32.8¢	$31.64	$53.94	+$22.31	59% 9906-6885 (16791)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Teletubisieavg 82¢	$44.12	$23.67	-$20.44	59% 30359-21072 (51431)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR<$100	BASEMENT BOYSavg 54¢	$2.38	$2.45	+$0.08	51% 342-335 (677)
HRTradingCTR<$100	BASEMENT BOYSavg 56¢	$1.12	$0.98	-$0.14	52% 3992-3635 (7627)

Vps1

Teletubisie

Invested

$1,007.68

Value

$443.82

PnL

-$563.86

Record

96%

291-13 (304)

38791873984189CTR

BASEMENT BOYS

Invested

$439.1

Value

$379.98

PnL

-$59.12

Record

46%

7901-9318 (17219)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Teletubisie

Invested

$293.75

Value

$294.2

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

2364-2080 (4444)

Both legs:

BASEMENT BOYS$78.8928.2¢+$77.87

Teletubisie$214.8668.8¢-$77.42

topdogbigboiCTR

BASEMENT BOYS

Invested

$46.47

Value

$116.99

PnL

+$70.52

Record

38%

3184-5178 (8362)

poshposhCTR<$100

BASEMENT BOYS

Invested

$31.64

Value

$53.94

PnL

+$22.31

Record

59%

9906-6885 (16791)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Teletubisie

Invested

$44.12

Value

$23.67

PnL

-$20.44

Record

59%

30359-21072 (51431)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR<$100

BASEMENT BOYS

Invested

$2.38

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

342-335 (677)

HRTradingCTR<$100

BASEMENT BOYS

Invested

$1.12

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.14

Record

52%

3992-3635 (7627)

Research grade

NeutralTeletubisie at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Teletubisie

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Teletubisie wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.