Counter-Strike: BIG vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Eternal Fire (50%) · Eternal Fire at 100¢ · $47K held · ends Oct 29

BIG<1¢Eternal Fire>99¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eternal Fire

Consensus Traders

Eternal Fire 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$47.1K

Combined PnL

$-15.1K

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 100¢

+80% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralEternal Fire at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eternal Fire

7 of 14 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

BIG0%

Eternal Fire100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eternal Fire7 traders

Total Value$25.7K

Total Shares43,688

Combined PnL$-1.1K

BIG7 traders

Total Value$16.2K

Total Shares40,184

Combined PnL$-14.0K

Eternal Fire — 50%BIG — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Eternal Fireavg 41.6¢	$11.0K	$11.2K	+$244.58	49% 18814-19213 (38027)
RN1CTR	BIGavg 59.7¢	$21.0K	$7.4K	$-13.6K	54% 56020-48151 (104171)
PN pnhctCTR	BIGavg 47.3¢	$7.3K	$7.3K	+$47.78	54% 475-405 (880)
noreasapa	Eternal Fireavg 99.9¢	$7.2K	$7.2K	+$3.59	92% 3565-331 (3896)
II iii252ARB<$100	BIGavg 58.8¢	$4.5K	$3.1K	$-1.3K	57% 1113-856 (1969)
└ BIG leg	BIGavg 58.8¢	$3.9K	$2.5K	$-1.4K
└ Eternal Fire leg	Eternal Fireavg 55¢	$566.62	$643.89	+$77.27
AA aaaa298	Eternal Fireavg 85.1¢	$4.4K	$2.8K	$-1.5K	58% 761-540 (1301)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	BIGavg 57.5¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$184.52	58% 18486-13571 (32057)
└ Eternal Fire leg	Eternal Fireavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$334.56
└ BIG leg	BIGavg 57.5¢	$1.1K	$629.37	-$519.08
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Eternal Fireavg 68.8¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$27.53	52% 13643-12473 (26116)
DumplingBMF	Eternal Fireavg 41¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$54.97	68% 1807-842 (2649)
DE delacsynzy1	Eternal Fireavg 54¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$92.59	52% 444-417 (861)
BA BAPEHUKCTR	BIGavg 57¢	$577.38	$583.48	+$6.1	49% 406-420 (826)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR	BIGavg 42.4¢	$712.84	$428.34	-$284.5	50% 334-330 (664)
GT gt7238CTR	BIGavg 35¢	$256.55	$300.53	+$43.98	45% 599-729 (1328)
GR GroolCTR	BIGavg 71¢	$213	$94.5	-$118.5	54% 1597-1375 (2972)
poshposhCTR<$100	BIGavg 57¢	$48.59	$49.02	+$0.43	59% 9671-6658 (16329)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Eternal Fireavg 41¢	$3.55	$5	+$1.45	63% 1100-656 (1756)

omnibus-076daa

Eternal Fire

Invested

$10,967.68

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$244.58

Record

49%

18814-19213 (38027)

RN1CTR

BIG

Invested

$21,017.01

Value

$7.4K

PnL

$-13.6K

Record

54%

56020-48151 (104171)

pnhctCTR

BIG

Invested

$7,288.69

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$47.78

Record

54%

475-405 (880)

noreasapa

Eternal Fire

Invested

$7,166.68

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$3.59

Record

92%

3565-331 (3896)

iii252ARB<$100

BIG

Invested

$4,486.78

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

57%

1113-856 (1969)

Both legs:

BIG$3,920.1658.8¢$-1.4K

Eternal Fire$566.6255¢+$77.27

aaaa298

Eternal Fire

Invested

$4,351.86

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

58%

761-540 (1301)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

BIG

Invested

$2,294.79

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$184.52

Record

58%

18486-13571 (32057)

Both legs:

Eternal Fire$1,146.3453¢+$334.56

BIG$1,148.4557.5¢-$519.08

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Eternal Fire

Invested

$1,876.9

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$27.53

Record

52%

13643-12473 (26116)

DumplingBMF

Eternal Fire

Invested

$1,474.79

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$54.97

Record

68%

1807-842 (2649)

delacsynzy1

Eternal Fire

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$92.59

Record

52%

444-417 (861)

BAPEHUKCTR

BIG

Invested

$577.38

Value

$583.48

PnL

+$6.1

Record

49%

406-420 (826)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR

BIG

Invested

$712.84

Value

$428.34

PnL

-$284.5

Record

50%

334-330 (664)

gt7238CTR

BIG

Invested

$256.55

Value

$300.53

PnL

+$43.98

Record

45%

599-729 (1328)

GroolCTR

BIG

Invested

$213

Value

$94.5

PnL

-$118.5

Record

54%

1597-1375 (2972)

poshposhCTR<$100

BIG

Invested

$48.59

Value

$49.02

PnL

+$0.43

Record

59%

9671-6658 (16329)

lonmi2511<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$3.55

Value

PnL

+$1.45

Record

63%

1100-656 (1756)

Research grade

NeutralEternal Fire at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Eternal Fire

7 of 14 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eternal Fire wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.