Counter-Strike: BIG vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Eternal Fire (50%) · Eternal Fire at 100¢ · $46K held · ends Oct 29

BIG<1¢Eternal Fire>99¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eternal Fire

Consensus Traders

Eternal Fire 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$46.3K

Combined PnL

$3.6K

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 100¢

+77% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralEternal Fire at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eternal Fire

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

BIG0%

Eternal Fire100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eternal Fire6 traders

Total Value$32.0K

Total Shares32,565

Combined PnL+$4.4K

BIG6 traders

Total Value$13.1K

Total Shares19,441

Combined PnL-$794.37

Eternal Fire — 50%BIG — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Eternal Fireavg 48.6¢	$11.2K	$17.4K	+$6.2K	54% 56016-48150 (104166)
AA aaaa298	Eternal Fireavg 79.1¢	$10.7K	$7.4K	$-2.1K	58% 760-540 (1300)
II iii252CTR	BIGavg 50.9¢	$7.2K	$6.9K	+$37.43	57% 1112-856 (1968)
PN pnhct	Eternal Fireavg 53.7¢	$6.1K	$6.2K	+$55.76	54% 474-405 (879)
FA fantasy7788CTR	BIGavg 60.6¢	$5.0K	$4.5K	-$502.68	41% 77-109 (186)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	BIGavg 47.1¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$125.6	58% 18484-13569 (32053)
└ BIG leg	BIGavg 47.1¢	$910.45	$763.93	-$146.52
└ Eternal Fire leg	Eternal Fireavg 57.4¢	$392.3	$413.22	+$20.91
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Eternal Fireavg 56.1¢	$692.7	$884.05	+$191.35	52% 13642-12471 (26113)
DE delacsynzy1CTR	BIGavg 55.9¢	$1.0K	$795.52	-$204.48	52% 444-417 (861)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	BIGavg 46.1¢	$772.99	$737.55	-$35.44	53% 3128-2760 (5888)
PI PIPIZINCTR	BIGavg 63.2¢	$300	$211.31	-$88.69	52% 405-379 (784)
OM omnibus-076daa	Eternal Fireavg 42.6¢	$106.93	$119.1	+$12.17	49% 18813-19212 (38025)
poshposh<$100	Eternal Fireavg 38.7¢	$57.11	$53.9	-$3.21	59% 9671-6655 (16326)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	BIGavg 30.5¢	$3.05	$2.55	-$0.5	63% 1100-656 (1756)

RN1

Eternal Fire

Invested

$11,169.37

Value

$17.4K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

54%

56016-48150 (104166)

aaaa298

Eternal Fire

Invested

$10,664.69

Value

$7.4K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

58%

760-540 (1300)

iii252CTR

BIG

Invested

$7,201.86

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$37.43

Record

57%

1112-856 (1968)

pnhct

Eternal Fire

Invested

$6,111.35

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$55.76

Record

54%

474-405 (879)

fantasy7788CTR

BIG

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$502.68

Record

41%

77-109 (186)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

BIG

Invested

$1,302.75

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$125.6

Record

58%

18484-13569 (32053)

Both legs:

BIG$910.4547.1¢-$146.52

Eternal Fire$392.357.4¢+$20.91

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Eternal Fire

Invested

$692.7

Value

$884.05

PnL

+$191.35

Record

52%

13642-12471 (26113)

delacsynzy1CTR

BIG

Invested

$1,000

Value

$795.52

PnL

-$204.48

Record

52%

444-417 (861)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

BIG

Invested

$772.99

Value

$737.55

PnL

-$35.44

Record

53%

3128-2760 (5888)

PIPIZINCTR

BIG

Invested

$300

Value

$211.31

PnL

-$88.69

Record

52%

405-379 (784)

omnibus-076daa

Eternal Fire

Invested

$106.93

Value

$119.1

PnL

+$12.17

Record

49%

18813-19212 (38025)

poshposh<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$57.11

Value

$53.9

PnL

-$3.21

Record

59%

9671-6655 (16326)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

BIG

Invested

$3.05

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.5

Record

63%

1100-656 (1756)

Research grade

NeutralEternal Fire at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Eternal Fire

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eternal Fire wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.