Counter-Strike: BIG vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold BIG (67%) · BIG at 59¢ · $19K held · ends Oct 29

BIG59¢Eternal Fire41¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BIG

Consensus Traders

BIG 67%

Total Value

$19.1K

Combined PnL

$165.29

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 58.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBIG at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BIG

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

BIG59%

Eternal Fire42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BIG6 traders

Total Value$18.8K

Total Shares33,006

Combined PnL+$151.5

Eternal Fire3 traders

Total Value$315.98

Total Shares737

Combined PnL+$13.8

BIG — 67%Eternal Fire — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	BIGavg 56¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	-$60	52% 1546-1430 (2976)
HU humbleboy	BIGavg 57¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$120.93	54% 503-423 (926)
KateBollinger	BIGavg 56¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$36.2	69% 1728-790 (2518)
relativesignificance	BIGavg 57.4¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$38.94	57% 90-67 (157)
GO Gooooooollllllllll	BIGavg 57¢	$618.22	$623.64	+$5.42	50% 1225-1219 (2444)
l0wkirkenuinely	BIGavg 57¢	$570	$580	+$10	56% 193-151 (344)
VeryLucky888CTR	Eternal Fireavg 41¢	$163.99	$165.99	+$2	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Eternal Fireavg 41¢	$112.36	$121.95	+$9.59	47% 2415-2698 (5113)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Eternal Fireavg 41¢	$25.83	$28.04	+$2.21	50% 12135-12341 (24476)

vibing123

BIG

Invested

$6,719.97

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$60

Record

52%

1546-1430 (2976)

humbleboy

BIG

Invested

$4,595.21

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$120.93

Record

54%

503-423 (926)

KateBollinger

BIG

Invested

$4,054.61

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$36.2

Record

69%

1728-790 (2518)

relativesignificance

BIG

Invested

$2,078.15

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$38.94

Record

57%

90-67 (157)

Gooooooollllllllll

BIG

Invested

$618.22

Value

$623.64

PnL

+$5.42

Record

50%

1225-1219 (2444)

l0wkirkenuinely

BIG

Invested

$570

Value

$580

PnL

+$10

Record

56%

193-151 (344)

VeryLucky888CTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$163.99

Value

$165.99

PnL

+$2

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$112.36

Value

$121.95

PnL

+$9.59

Record

47%

2415-2698 (5113)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$25.83

Value

$28.04

PnL

+$2.21

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

Research grade

NeutralBIG at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

BIG

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BIG wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.