Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ILLYRIANS (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 Playoffs

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Betclic Apogee Esports (67%) · Betclic Apogee Esports at 85¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30

Betclic Apogee Esports85¢ILLYRIANS15¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Betclic Apogee Esports

Consensus Traders

Betclic Apogee Esports 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$32.98

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 85¢

+18% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBetclic Apogee Esports at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Betclic Apogee Esports

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Betclic Apogee Esports85%

ILLYRIANS15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Betclic Apogee Esports6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,411

Combined PnL+$134.86

ILLYRIANS3 traders

Total Value$276.04

Total Shares1,499

Combined PnL-$167.83

Betclic Apogee Esports — 67%ILLYRIANS — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 73.3¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$64.18	52% 1222-1120 (2342)
AS astapzippo	Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 67.9¢	$578.85	$651.77	+$72.92	56% 2143-1696 (3839)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 67.1¢	$697.41	$606.58	+$21.52	46% 7951-9381 (17332)
└ Betclic Apogee Esports leg	Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 67.1¢	$422.44	$421.77	+$5.07
└ ILLYRIANS leg	ILLYRIANSavg 30.1¢	$168.35	$184.8	+$16.45
LE legitgameCTR	ILLYRIANSavg 31.8¢	$315.31	$232.65	-$82.66	57% 248-190 (438)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 82.7¢	$108.62	$106.4	-$2.22	53% 2369-2080 (4449)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 86¢	$59.46	$59.11	-$0.35	59% 30366-21076 (51442)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	ILLYRIANSavg 25.5¢	$123.08	$41.05	-$82.04	38% 3192-5199 (8391)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 75.6¢	$9.8	$9.91	+$0.11	49% 18981-19394 (38375)
poshposhCTR<$100	ILLYRIANSavg 21¢	$5.48	$2.35	-$3.13	59% 9923-6892 (16815)
HRTrading<$100	Betclic Apogee Esportsavg 66¢	$1.32	$1.53	+$0.21	52% 3998-3640 (7638)

JohnLKellyJr

Betclic Apogee Esports

Invested

$1,000.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$64.18

Record

52%

1222-1120 (2342)

astapzippo

Betclic Apogee Esports

Invested

$578.85

Value

$651.77

PnL

+$72.92

Record

56%

2143-1696 (3839)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Betclic Apogee Esports

Invested

$697.41

Value

$606.58

PnL

+$21.52

Record

46%

7951-9381 (17332)

Both legs:

Betclic Apogee Esports$422.4467.1¢+$5.07

ILLYRIANS$168.3530.1¢+$16.45

legitgameCTR

ILLYRIANS

Invested

$315.31

Value

$232.65

PnL

-$82.66

Record

57%

248-190 (438)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Betclic Apogee Esports

Invested

$108.62

Value

$106.4

PnL

-$2.22

Record

53%

2369-2080 (4449)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Betclic Apogee Esports

Invested

$59.46

Value

$59.11

PnL

-$0.35

Record

59%

30366-21076 (51442)

topdogbigboiCTR

ILLYRIANS

Invested

$123.08

Value

$41.05

PnL

-$82.04

Record

38%

3192-5199 (8391)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Betclic Apogee Esports

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.91

PnL

+$0.11

Record

49%

18981-19394 (38375)

poshposhCTR<$100

ILLYRIANS

Invested

$5.48

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$3.13

Record

59%

9923-6892 (16815)

HRTrading<$100

Betclic Apogee Esports

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.21

Record

52%

3998-3640 (7638)

Research grade

NeutralBetclic Apogee Esports at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Betclic Apogee Esports

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Betclic Apogee Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.