Counter-Strike: Bad Beavers vs The Chosen Few (BO3) - United21 Group D

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold The Chosen Few (55%) · The Chosen Few at 71¢ · $974 held · ends Nov 12

Bad Beavers30¢The Chosen Few70¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

The Chosen Few

Consensus Traders

The Chosen Few 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$974.15

Combined PnL

-$80.14

Smart Money Entry

67.5¢ → 70.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralThe Chosen Few at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

The Chosen Few

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bad Beavers30%

The Chosen Few71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

The Chosen Few6 traders

Total Value$558.38

Total Shares742

Combined PnL-$29.28

Bad Beavers5 traders

Total Value$134.9

Total Shares516

Combined PnL-$50.86

The Chosen Few — 55%Bad Beavers — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on The Chosen Few. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBad Beavers 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000The Chosen Few 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
31 319113331313111	The Chosen Fewavg 66.1¢	$2.1K	$390.29	-$57.1	57% 102-76 (178)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	The Chosen Fewavg 50¢	$262.5	$280.87	+$18.37	54% 421-356 (777)
└ The Chosen Few leg	The Chosen Fewavg 50¢	$131.25	$199.5	+$68.25
└ Bad Beavers leg	Bad Beaversavg 50¢	$131.25	$81.38	-$49.87
Future-Tarot-Trader	The Chosen Fewavg 69.5¢	$619.58	$96.98	+$28.68	48% 79-86 (165)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Bad Beaversavg 31.1¢	$68.9	$48.67	-$20.23	37% 524-900 (1424)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Bad Beaversavg 45.8¢	$69.51	$47	-$22.51	48% 2099-2308 (4407)
LO lonmi2511<$100	The Chosen Fewavg 79.9¢	$45.35	$44.3	-$1.06	60% 667-444 (1111)
poshposhCTR<$100	Bad Beaversavg 33.3¢	$24.31	$17.53	-$6.78	47% 507-572 (1079)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	The Chosen Fewavg 75¢	$18.31	$16.58	-$1.73	41% 244-358 (602)
GT gt7238CTR<$100	Bad Beaversavg 29¢	$15.42	$15.69	+$0.27	4% 21-461 (482)
LR lryyy<$100	The Chosen Fewavg 56¢	$6.16	$6.44	+$0.27	44% 372-476 (848)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Bad Beaversavg 45¢	$7.62	$6.01	-$1.61	53% 6074-5439 (11513)
SH shiifoo<$100	The Chosen Fewavg 43¢	$2.15	$3.8	+$1.65	62% 1358-824 (2182)

319113331313111

The Chosen Few

Invested

$2,072.43

Value

$390.29

PnL

-$57.1

Record

57%

102-76 (178)

NotJumpARB<$100

The Chosen Few

Invested

$262.5

Value

$280.87

PnL

+$18.37

Record

54%

421-356 (777)

Both legs:

The Chosen Few$131.2550¢+$68.25

Bad Beavers$131.2550¢-$49.87

Future-Tarot-Trader

The Chosen Few

Invested

$619.58

Value

$96.98

PnL

+$28.68

Record

48%

79-86 (165)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Bad Beavers

Invested

$68.9

Value

$48.67

PnL

-$20.23

Record

37%

524-900 (1424)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Bad Beavers

Invested

$69.51

Value

$47

PnL

-$22.51

Record

48%

2099-2308 (4407)

lonmi2511<$100

The Chosen Few

Invested

$45.35

Value

$44.3

PnL

-$1.06

Record

60%

667-444 (1111)

poshposhCTR<$100

Bad Beavers

Invested

$24.31

Value

$17.53

PnL

-$6.78

Record

47%

507-572 (1079)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

The Chosen Few

Invested

$18.31

Value

$16.58

PnL

-$1.73

Record

41%

244-358 (602)

gt7238CTR<$100

Bad Beavers

Invested

$15.42

Value

$15.69

PnL

+$0.27

Record

21-461 (482)

lryyy<$100

The Chosen Few

Invested

$6.16

Value

$6.44

PnL

+$0.27

Record

44%

372-476 (848)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Bad Beavers

Invested

$7.62

Value

$6.01

PnL

-$1.61

Record

53%

6074-5439 (11513)

shiifoo<$100

The Chosen Few

Invested

$2.15

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$1.65

Record

62%

1358-824 (2182)

Research grade

NeutralThe Chosen Few at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

The Chosen Few

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on The Chosen Few. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBad Beavers 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000The Chosen Few 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that The Chosen Few wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.