Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (40%) · FURIA at 61¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
FURIA
5
FURIA 40%
$13.9K
$65.44
60.7¢ → 60.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralFURIA at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123 | FURIAavg 60.6¢ | $7.4K | $7.5K | +$112.73 | 52% 1550-1433 (2983) |
HU humbleboy | FURIAavg 61¢ | $4.9K | $4.9K | +$0 | 54% 504-424 (928) |
 relativesignificanceCTR | BetBoom Teamavg 40¢ | $692.9 | $666.92 | -$25.98 | 58% 92-67 (159) |
SP sportteryqqCTR | BetBoom Teamavg 39¢ | $492 | $492 | -$6.31 | 40% 411-624 (1035) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | BetBoom Teamavg 40¢ | $400 | $390 | -$15 | 53% 5516-4867 (10383) |
Invested
$7,379.34
Value
$7.5K
PnL
+$112.73
Record
52%
1550-1433 (2983)
Invested
$4,880
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
504-424 (928)
relativesignificanceCTRInvested
$692.9
Value
$666.92
PnL
-$25.98
Record
58%
92-67 (159)
Invested
$492
Value
$492
PnL
-$6.31
Record
40%
411-624 (1035)
Invested
$400
Value
$390
PnL
-$15
Record
53%
5516-4867 (10383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.