Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora Gaming (33%) · Aurora Gaming at 55¢ · $53K held · ends Nov 4

BetBoom Team46¢Aurora Gaming54¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aurora Gaming

Consensus Traders

Aurora Gaming 33%

Total Value

$52.8K

Combined PnL

$0.59

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAurora Gaming at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora Gaming

5 of 15 top traders (33%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

BetBoom Team46%

Aurora Gaming55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aurora Gaming5 traders

Total Value$40.7K

Total Shares74,779

Combined PnL+$192.38

BetBoom Team10 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares26,767

Combined PnL-$191.78

Aurora Gaming — 33%BetBoom Team — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Aurora Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBetBoom Team 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrBetBoom Team 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000BetBoom Team 69% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlll	Aurora Gamingavg 54.5¢	$28.0K	$28.0K	+$14.28	54% 312-267 (579)
VI vibing123	Aurora Gamingavg 52¢	$6.2K	$6.4K	+$237.85	52% 1605-1509 (3114)
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 46¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$100	50% 373-374 (747)
Satanishippie	Aurora Gamingavg 56.2¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$113.73	48% 328-360 (688)
relativesignificanceCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 47¢	$3.7K	$3.5K	-$75.28	56% 134-104 (238)
NE NeverLoseBetCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 45¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$27	47% 82-92 (174)
VE Vetch	Aurora Gamingavg 53¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$40	60% 373-244 (617)
SU suntoriCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 47.3¢	$525.22	$504.88	-$20.33	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
HU humbleboy	Aurora Gamingavg 53¢	$493.65	$502.97	+$13.97	54% 519-436 (955)
one8tyfiveCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 45¢	$483.75	$489.12	+$5.37	58% 2131-1516 (3647)
SP spartachioCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 47.2¢	$490.91	$467.61	-$23.3	48% 711-771 (1482)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 47.2¢	$65.59	$62.48	-$3.11	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 46¢	$47.15	$46.13	-$1.03	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 46¢	$40.94	$40.05	-$0.89	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 47.2¢	$4.72	$4.5	-$0.22	53% 916-813 (1729)

lllllllIlll

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$28,004.14

Value

$28.0K

PnL

+$14.28

Record

54%

312-267 (579)

vibing123

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$6,184.19

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$237.85

Record

52%

1605-1509 (3114)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$4,599.97

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$100

Record

50%

373-374 (747)

Satanishippie

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$3,681

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$113.73

Record

48%

328-360 (688)

relativesignificanceCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$3,672.36

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$75.28

Record

56%

134-104 (238)

NeverLoseBetCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$2,430.26

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$27

Record

47%

82-92 (174)

Vetch

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$2,119.99

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$40

Record

60%

373-244 (617)

suntoriCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$525.22

Value

$504.88

PnL

-$20.33

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

humbleboy

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$493.65

Value

$502.97

PnL

+$13.97

Record

54%

519-436 (955)

one8tyfiveCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$483.75

Value

$489.12

PnL

+$5.37

Record

58%

2131-1516 (3647)

spartachioCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$490.91

Value

$467.61

PnL

-$23.3

Record

48%

711-771 (1482)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$65.59

Value

$62.48

PnL

-$3.11

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

ghorrockCTR<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$47.15

Value

$46.13

PnL

-$1.03

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$40.94

Value

$40.05

PnL

-$0.89

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

VenusianCTR<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$4.72

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.22

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

Research grade

NeutralAurora Gaming at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Aurora Gaming

5 of 15 top traders (33%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Aurora Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBetBoom Team 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrBetBoom Team 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000BetBoom Team 69% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aurora Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.