Counter-Strike: Balkan Outlaws vs KUUSAMO.gg - Map 2 Winner
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Balkan Outlaws (57%) · Balkan Outlaws at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Balkan Outlaws
7
Balkan Outlaws 57%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
$622.27
68.6¢ → 99.8¢
+45% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralBalkan Outlaws at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Balkan Outlaws. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JohnLKellyJr | Balkan Outlawsavg 67.4¢ | $1.5K | $2.2K | +$641.14 | 56% 15-12 (27) |
NO NotJumpCTR | KUUSAMO.ggavg 50¢ | $262.5 | $274.91 | +$12.41 | 54% 439-373 (812) |
31 319113331313111ARB<$100 | KUUSAMO.ggavg 32.2¢ | $310.18 | $237.82 | -$72.37 | 57% 110-82 (192) |
| └ Balkan Outlaws leg | Balkan Outlawsavg 86.7¢ | $153.07 | $141.66 | -$11.41 | |
| └ KUUSAMO.gg leg | KUUSAMO.ggavg 32.2¢ | $157.11 | $96.15 | -$60.96 | |
SU suntori | Balkan Outlawsavg 77¢ | $95.23 | $121.82 | +$26.59 | 47% 1583-1774 (3357) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Balkan Outlawsavg 89.3¢ | $199.12 | $63.75 | -$15.17 | 65% 101-54 (155) |
 Future-Tarot-Trader | Balkan Outlawsavg 89¢ | $293.28 | $16.63 | -$4.79 | 49% 89-91 (180) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | KUUSAMO.ggavg 22¢ | $41.11 | $2.81 | -$38.31 | 37% 534-922 (1456) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | KUUSAMO.ggavg 16¢ | $1.76 | $2.17 | +$0.41 | 44% 384-486 (870) |
JohnLKellyJrInvested
$1,539.77
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$641.14
Record
56%
15-12 (27)
Invested
$262.5
Value
$274.91
PnL
+$12.41
Record
54%
439-373 (812)
Invested
$310.18
Value
$237.82
PnL
-$72.37
Record
57%
110-82 (192)
Both legs:
Invested
$95.23
Value
$121.82
PnL
+$26.59
Record
47%
1583-1774 (3357)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$199.12
Value
$63.75
PnL
-$15.17
Record
65%
101-54 (155)
Future-Tarot-TraderInvested
$293.28
Value
$16.63
PnL
-$4.79
Record
49%
89-91 (180)
Invested
$41.11
Value
$2.81
PnL
-$38.31
Record
37%
534-922 (1456)
Invested
$1.76
Value
$2.17
PnL
+$0.41
Record
44%
384-486 (870)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
JohnLKellyJr
Balkan Outlaws — $2.2K
NotJump
CTRKUUSAMO.gg — $274.91
319113331313111
ARBArbitrage — excluded
suntori
Balkan Outlaws — $121.82
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f
Balkan Outlaws — $63.75
Future-Tarot-Trader
Balkan Outlaws — $16.63
topdogbigboi
CTRKUUSAMO.gg — $2.81
lryyy
CTRKUUSAMO.gg — $2.17