Counter-Strike: Balkan Outlaws vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #12 Group D

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Balkan Outlaws (38%) · Balkan Outlaws at 72¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12

Balkan Outlaws72¢KUUSAMO.gg28¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Balkan Outlaws

Consensus Traders

Balkan Outlaws 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$238.69

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 71.5¢

+20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBalkan Outlaws at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Balkan Outlaws

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Balkan Outlaws72%

KUUSAMO.gg28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Balkan Outlaws5 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,895

Combined PnL+$409.8

KUUSAMO.gg8 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares3,051

Combined PnL-$171.12

Balkan Outlaws — 38%KUUSAMO.gg — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Balkan Outlaws. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKUUSAMO.gg 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000KUUSAMO.gg 64% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	Balkan Outlawsavg 57.1¢	$2.0K	$2.5K	+$467.44	56% 15-12 (27)
31 319113331313111	Balkan Outlawsavg 58.7¢	$824.86	$563.99	+$35.45	57% 110-82 (192)
CA calculate10CTR	KUUSAMO.ggavg 43.3¢	$581.68	$404.49	-$135.85	28% 46-118 (164)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	KUUSAMO.ggavg 26¢	$208	$288	+$80	54% 143-120 (263)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	KUUSAMO.ggavg 49¢	$284.5	$278.75	-$5.75	54% 439-373 (812)
└ Balkan Outlaws leg	Balkan Outlawsavg 50¢	$131.25	$177.19	+$45.94
└ KUUSAMO.gg leg	KUUSAMO.ggavg 49¢	$153.25	$101.56	-$51.69
38 38791873984189	Balkan Outlawsavg 74.5¢	$585.28	$224.63	-$69.29	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
GA Gaditima	Balkan Outlawsavg 72.9¢	$203.48	$188.42	-$15.06	47% 160-184 (344)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	KUUSAMO.ggavg 45¢	$225	$162.5	-$62.5	33% 302-622 (924)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	KUUSAMO.ggavg 44.7¢	$122.58	$89.21	-$33.37	37% 534-922 (1456)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	KUUSAMO.ggavg 36.5¢	$432.3	$86.34	-$8	65% 101-54 (155)
└ Balkan Outlaws leg	Balkan Outlawsavg 71¢	$42.6	$43.2	-$36.86
└ KUUSAMO.gg leg	KUUSAMO.ggavg 36.5¢	$56.21	$43.14	+$28.86
PA Pan9X<$100	Balkan Outlawsavg 73.2¢	$48.33	$39.59	-$8.74	49% 1072-1133 (2205)
poshposhCTR<$100	KUUSAMO.ggavg 44¢	$35.69	$26.36	-$9.33	47% 522-581 (1103)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	KUUSAMO.ggavg 44¢	$26.4	$19.5	-$6.9	41% 251-365 (616)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	KUUSAMO.ggavg 44¢	$24.3	$17.95	-$6.35	53% 6091-5453 (11544)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	KUUSAMO.ggavg 27¢	$9.52	$12.69	+$3.17	47% 1583-1774 (3357)

JohnLKellyJr

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$2,000.03

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$467.44

Record

56%

15-12 (27)

319113331313111

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$824.86

Value

$563.99

PnL

+$35.45

Record

57%

110-82 (192)

calculate10CTR

KUUSAMO.gg

Invested

$581.68

Value

$404.49

PnL

-$135.85

Record

28%

46-118 (164)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

KUUSAMO.gg

Invested

$208

Value

$288

PnL

+$80

Record

54%

143-120 (263)

NotJumpARB<$100

KUUSAMO.gg

Invested

$284.5

Value

$278.75

PnL

-$5.75

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

Both legs:

Balkan Outlaws$131.2550¢+$45.94

KUUSAMO.gg$153.2549¢-$51.69

38791873984189

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$585.28

Value

$224.63

PnL

-$69.29

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

Gaditima

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$203.48

Value

$188.42

PnL

-$15.06

Record

47%

160-184 (344)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

KUUSAMO.gg

Invested

$225

Value

$162.5

PnL

-$62.5

Record

33%

302-622 (924)

topdogbigboiCTR

KUUSAMO.gg

Invested

$122.58

Value

$89.21

PnL

-$33.37

Record

37%

534-922 (1456)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

KUUSAMO.gg

Invested

$432.3

Value

$86.34

PnL

-$8

Record

65%

101-54 (155)

Both legs:

Balkan Outlaws$42.671¢-$36.86

KUUSAMO.gg$56.2136.5¢+$28.86

Pan9X<$100

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$48.33

Value

$39.59

PnL

-$8.74

Record

49%

1072-1133 (2205)

poshposhCTR<$100

KUUSAMO.gg

Invested

$35.69

Value

$26.36

PnL

-$9.33

Record

47%

522-581 (1103)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

KUUSAMO.gg

Invested

$26.4

Value

$19.5

PnL

-$6.9

Record

41%

251-365 (616)

cigarettesCTR<$100

KUUSAMO.gg

Invested

$24.3

Value

$17.95

PnL

-$6.35

Record

53%

6091-5453 (11544)

suntoriCTR<$100

KUUSAMO.gg

Invested

$9.52

Value

$12.69

PnL

+$3.17

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

Research grade

NeutralBalkan Outlaws at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Balkan Outlaws

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Balkan Outlaws. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKUUSAMO.gg 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000KUUSAMO.gg 64% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Balkan Outlaws wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.