Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold ex-ENCE, while the market favors Balkan Outlaws (55%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: Balkan Outlaws vs ex-ENCE (BO3) - European Pro League Group B

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold ex-ENCE (80%) · ex-ENCE at 46¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 9

Balkan Outlaws55¢ex-ENCE45¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

ex-ENCE

Consensus Traders

ex-ENCE 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

-$342.57

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 45.5¢

-7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Neutralex-ENCE at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

ex-ENCE

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Balkan Outlaws 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Balkan Outlaws55%

ex-ENCE46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

ex-ENCE8 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares12,493

Combined PnL+$166.41

Balkan Outlaws2 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares8,197

Combined PnL-$508.98

ex-ENCE — 80%Balkan Outlaws — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JohnnyWinsCTR	ex-ENCEavg 49.6¢	$6.1K	$6.2K	+$179.69	43% 135-176 (311)
LI Liquidifier	Balkan Outlawsavg 54.2¢	$4.4K	$3.9K	-$509.11	50% 1276-1262 (2538)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	ex-ENCEavg 50.7¢	$1.0K	$750.83	-$43.71	48% 72152-77872 (150024)
└ ex-ENCE leg	ex-ENCEavg 50.7¢	$480.27	$431.22	-$67.99
└ Balkan Outlaws leg	Balkan Outlawsavg 50.3¢	$295.2	$319.61	+$24.28
BI biying88888CTR	ex-ENCEavg 45.8¢	$518.96	$518.87	-$3.51	46% 337-401 (738)
CI cigarettesCTR	ex-ENCEavg 45.7¢	$290.63	$289.19	-$1.44	50% 66257-66785 (133042)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	ex-ENCEavg 51¢	$204	$208	+$4	51% 2350-2286 (4636)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	ex-ENCEavg 50¢	$115	$113.75	-$1.25	57% 213-160 (373)
VeryLucky888CTR	ex-ENCEavg 49.9¢	$1.6K	$79.1	-$7.3	58% 53770-38280 (92050)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	ex-ENCEavg 49.4¢	$58.48	$26.55	-$4.09	53% 28354-25627 (53981)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	ex-ENCEavg 44¢	$9.06	$9.37	+$0.31	46% 33770-39445 (73215)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Balkan Outlawsavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.73	+$0.13	52% 6198-5720 (11918)

JohnnyWinsCTR

ex-ENCE

Invested

$6,054.22

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$179.69

Record

43%

135-176 (311)

Liquidifier

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$4,441.35

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$509.11

Record

50%

1276-1262 (2538)

38791873984189ARB<$100

ex-ENCE

Invested

$1,040.36

Value

$750.83

PnL

-$43.71

Record

48%

72152-77872 (150024)

Both legs:

ex-ENCE$480.2750.7¢-$67.99

Balkan Outlaws$295.250.3¢+$24.28

biying88888CTR

ex-ENCE

Invested

$518.96

Value

$518.87

PnL

-$3.51

Record

46%

337-401 (738)

cigarettesCTR

ex-ENCE

Invested

$290.63

Value

$289.19

PnL

-$1.44

Record

50%

66257-66785 (133042)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

ex-ENCE

Invested

$204

Value

$208

PnL

+$4

Record

51%

2350-2286 (4636)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

ex-ENCE

Invested

$115

Value

$113.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

57%

213-160 (373)

VeryLucky888CTR

ex-ENCE

Invested

$1,597.91

Value

$79.1

PnL

-$7.3

Record

58%

53770-38280 (92050)

Pan9XCTR<$100

ex-ENCE

Invested

$58.48

Value

$26.55

PnL

-$4.09

Record

53%

28354-25627 (53981)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

ex-ENCE

Invested

$9.06

Value

$9.37

PnL

+$0.31

Record

46%

33770-39445 (73215)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.13

Record

52%

6198-5720 (11918)

Research grade

Neutralex-ENCE at 46%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

ex-ENCE

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Balkan Outlaws 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that ex-ENCE wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.