Counter-Strike: BakS eSports vs The Last Resort (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold BakS eSports (13%) · BakS eSports at 83¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 12

BakS eSports83¢The Last Resort17¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BakS eSports

Consensus Traders

BakS eSports 13%

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

-$6.71

Research grade

NeutralBakS eSports at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BakS eSports

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

BakS eSports83%

The Last Resort18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BakS eSports1 trader

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares11,351

Combined PnL+$29.9

The Last Resort7 traders

Total Value$134.68

Total Shares1,006

Combined PnL-$36.61

BakS eSports — 13%The Last Resort — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on BakS eSports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThe Last Resort 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000The Last Resort 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	BakS eSportsavg 82.2¢	$9.3K	$9.4K	+$29.9	54% 138-119 (257)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	The Last Resortavg 18.8¢	$87.13	$50.92	-$36.21	47% 1458-1629 (3087)
0X 0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100	The Last Resortavg 15¢	$33.56	$33.56	-$0	— 5-5 (10)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	The Last Resortavg 18¢	$28.75	$23.97	-$4.78	37% 507-869 (1376)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	The Last Resortavg 12¢	$10.99	$16.03	+$5.04	32% 522-1096 (1618)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	The Last Resortavg 16.1¢	$6.29	$5.85	-$0.44	53% 6040-5408 (11448)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	The Last Resortavg 16¢	$4.32	$4.05	-$0.27	68% 2604-1202 (3806)
WI WiretransferxyzCTR<$100	The Last Resortavg 12¢	$0.24	$0.29	+$0.05	56% 385-300 (685)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

BakS eSports

Invested

$9,334.7

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$29.9

Record

54%

138-119 (257)

suntoriCTR<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$87.13

Value

$50.92

PnL

-$36.21

Record

47%

1458-1629 (3087)

0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$33.56

Value

$33.56

PnL

-$0

Record

—

5-5 (10)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$28.75

Value

$23.97

PnL

-$4.78

Record

37%

507-869 (1376)

VenusianCTR<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$10.99

Value

$16.03

PnL

+$5.04

Record

32%

522-1096 (1618)

cigarettesCTR<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$6.29

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.44

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

purplegattoCTR<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$4.32

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$0.27

Record

68%

2604-1202 (3806)

WiretransferxyzCTR<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0.05

Record

56%

385-300 (685)

Research grade

NeutralBakS eSports at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

BakS eSports

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on BakS eSports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThe Last Resort 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000The Last Resort 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BakS eSports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.