Counter-Strike: BakS eSports vs Saint Sinners (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 Group Stage

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Saint Sinners (56%) · Saint Sinners at 52¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27

BakS eSports49¢Saint Sinners51¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Saint Sinners

Consensus Traders

Saint Sinners 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$184.44

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 51.5¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSaint Sinners at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saint Sinners

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

BakS eSports49%

Saint Sinners52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saint Sinners5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,595

Combined PnL+$187.53

BakS eSports4 traders

Total Value$556.55

Total Shares1,005

Combined PnL-$3.1

Saint Sinners — 56%BakS eSports — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Saint Sinners. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSaint Sinners 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Saint Sinners 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1am1b	Saint Sinnersavg 39¢	$500	$711.68	+$211.68	57% 178-132 (310)
daddyradar	Saint Sinnersavg 54¢	$719.56	$686.48	-$33.07	65% 68-36 (104)
SW swiftFoxx	Saint Sinnersavg 55.4¢	$511.85	$512.38	+$0.52	73% 48-18 (66)
AS astapzippoCTR	BakS eSportsavg 61¢	$396.5	$396.5	+$3.25	56% 2106-1641 (3747)
poshposhARB<$100	BakS eSportsavg 52.8¢	$392.76	$309.53	-$83.23	60% 9092-6016 (15108)
└ BakS eSports leg	BakS eSportsavg 52.8¢	$338.03	$243.49	-$94.54
└ Saint Sinners leg	Saint Sinnersavg 51.4¢	$54.74	$66.04	+$11.3
TE testBruno2CTR	BakS eSportsavg 45.3¢	$234.95	$87.16	-$9.07	57% 795-589 (1384)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	BakS eSportsavg 43.5¢	$52.1	$53.34	+$1.24	60% 3220-2159 (5379)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F<$100	Saint Sinnersavg 36.7¢	$16.31	$24.69	+$8.37	55% 125-102 (227)
US User7429CTR<$100	BakS eSportsavg 41.1¢	$18.07	$19.55	+$1.48	55% 8033-6503 (14536)
HRTrading<$100	Saint Sinnersavg 38.3¢	$4.59	$6.24	+$0.03	54% 2570-2206 (4776)

1am1b

Saint Sinners

Invested

$500

Value

$711.68

PnL

+$211.68

Record

57%

178-132 (310)

daddyradar

Saint Sinners

Invested

$719.56

Value

$686.48

PnL

-$33.07

Record

65%

68-36 (104)

swiftFoxx

Saint Sinners

Invested

$511.85

Value

$512.38

PnL

+$0.52

Record

73%

48-18 (66)

astapzippoCTR

BakS eSports

Invested

$396.5

Value

$396.5

PnL

+$3.25

Record

56%

2106-1641 (3747)

poshposhARB<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$392.76

Value

$309.53

PnL

-$83.23

Record

60%

9092-6016 (15108)

Both legs:

BakS eSports$338.0352.8¢-$94.54

Saint Sinners$54.7451.4¢+$11.3

testBruno2CTR

BakS eSports

Invested

$234.95

Value

$87.16

PnL

-$9.07

Record

57%

795-589 (1384)

shiifooCTR<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$52.1

Value

$53.34

PnL

+$1.24

Record

60%

3220-2159 (5379)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F<$100

Saint Sinners

Invested

$16.31

Value

$24.69

PnL

+$8.37

Record

55%

125-102 (227)

User7429CTR<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$18.07

Value

$19.55

PnL

+$1.48

Record

55%

8033-6503 (14536)

HRTrading<$100

Saint Sinners

Invested

$4.59

Value

$6.24

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

2570-2206 (4776)

Research grade

NeutralSaint Sinners at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Saint Sinners

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Saint Sinners. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSaint Sinners 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Saint Sinners 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saint Sinners wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.