Counter-Strike: BakS eSports vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold BakS eSports (79%) · BakS eSports at 84¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 9

BakS eSports84¢Leo Team16¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BakS eSports

Consensus Traders

BakS eSports 79%

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

-$430.38

Smart Money Entry

67.9¢ → 83.5¢

+23% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralBakS eSports at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BakS eSports

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

BakS eSports84%

Leo Team17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BakS eSports11 traders

Total Value$10.2K

Total Shares15,056

Combined PnL-$515.82

Leo Team3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,073

Combined PnL+$85.43

BakS eSports — 79%Leo Team — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Liquidifier	BakS eSportsavg 64.3¢	$5.5K	$5.1K	-$453.33	50% 1276-1262 (2538)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	BakS eSportsavg 74.8¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$139.91	53% 15728-13882 (29610)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540	BakS eSportsavg 65.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$125.91	54% 120-102 (222)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	Leo Teamavg 37.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$86.8	55% 271-223 (494)
31 319113331313111	BakS eSportsavg 77.7¢	$1.5K	$844.57	-$106.95	58% 517-377 (894)
CI cigarettes	BakS eSportsavg 82¢	$352.24	$377.2	+$24.96	50% 66257-66785 (133042)
SL SlickRick123	BakS eSportsavg 81¢	$337.77	$358.62	+$20.85	47% 6391-7104 (13495)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	BakS eSportsavg 64¢	$255.99	$235.99	-$20	51% 2350-2286 (4636)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Leo Teamavg 41.7¢	$99.34	$97.62	-$1.72	47% 255-289 (544)
GA Gaditima<$100	BakS eSportsavg 84¢	$84	$86	+$2	47% 8793-9983 (18776)
SE sentrio<$100	BakS eSportsavg 86¢	$52.23	$51.92	-$0.3	51% 28817-28169 (56986)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	BakS eSportsavg 78.6¢	$19.65	$21.5	+$1.85	52% 6198-5720 (11918)
LR lryyy<$100	BakS eSportsavg 81¢	$17.82	$18.92	+$1.1	48% 40305-43263 (83568)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Leo Teamavg 34.1¢	$1.71	$2.05	+$0.34	53% 1651-1490 (3141)

Liquidifier

BakS eSports

Invested

$5,508.56

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$453.33

Record

50%

1276-1262 (2538)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

BakS eSports

Invested

$1,798.82

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$139.91

Record

53%

15728-13882 (29610)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540

BakS eSports

Invested

$1,333.41

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$125.91

Record

54%

120-102 (222)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

Leo Team

Invested

$1,073.57

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$86.8

Record

55%

271-223 (494)

319113331313111

BakS eSports

Invested

$1,544.57

Value

$844.57

PnL

-$106.95

Record

58%

517-377 (894)

cigarettes

BakS eSports

Invested

$352.24

Value

$377.2

PnL

+$24.96

Record

50%

66257-66785 (133042)

SlickRick123

BakS eSports

Invested

$337.77

Value

$358.62

PnL

+$20.85

Record

47%

6391-7104 (13495)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

BakS eSports

Invested

$255.99

Value

$235.99

PnL

-$20

Record

51%

2350-2286 (4636)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$99.34

Value

$97.62

PnL

-$1.72

Record

47%

255-289 (544)

Gaditima<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$84

Value

$86

PnL

+$2

Record

47%

8793-9983 (18776)

sentrio<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$52.23

Value

$51.92

PnL

-$0.3

Record

51%

28817-28169 (56986)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$19.65

Value

$21.5

PnL

+$1.85

Record

52%

6198-5720 (11918)

lryyy<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$17.82

Value

$18.92

PnL

+$1.1

Record

48%

40305-43263 (83568)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$1.71

Value

$2.05

PnL

+$0.34

Record

53%

1651-1490 (3141)

Research grade

NeutralBakS eSports at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

BakS eSports

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BakS eSports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.