Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold BakS eSports, while the market favors ILLYRIANS (66%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: BakS eSports vs ILLYRIANS (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold BakS eSports (70%) · BakS eSports at 35¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

BakS eSports35¢ILLYRIANS65¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BakS eSports

Consensus Traders

BakS eSports 70%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$135.5

Smart Money Entry

65.7¢ → 34.5¢

-47% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBakS eSports at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BakS eSports

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors ILLYRIANS 66%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

BakS eSports35%

ILLYRIANS66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BakS eSports7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,348

Combined PnL-$225.01

ILLYRIANS3 traders

Total Value$431.87

Total Shares1,222

Combined PnL+$89.52

BakS eSports — 70%ILLYRIANS — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on BakS eSports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBakS eSports 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000BakS eSports 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU JuiceFarmCTR	BakS eSportsavg 71¢	$780.99	$753.49	-$27.5	57% 46-35 (81)
alpheclabs2CTR	BakS eSportsavg 67.3¢	$897.1	$734.8	+$19.3	46% 294-351 (645)
SL SlickRick123CTR	BakS eSportsavg 63.6¢	$720.32	$684.76	-$35.56	34% 370-708 (1078)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	BakS eSportsavg 64.7¢	$312.22	$301.05	-$11.17	61% 164-107 (271)
└ ILLYRIANS leg	ILLYRIANSavg 38.6¢	$115.83	$194.8	+$78.97
└ BakS eSports leg	BakS eSportsavg 64.7¢	$196.39	$106.25	-$90.14
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	ILLYRIANSavg 29¢	$295.33	$300.57	+$5.24	55% 169-138 (307)
CR crabfavorARB<$100	BakS eSportsavg 62.9¢	$303.64	$223.05	-$80.6	58% 97-71 (168)
└ BakS eSports leg	BakS eSportsavg 62.9¢	$210.65	$132.3	-$78.35
└ ILLYRIANS leg	ILLYRIANSavg 62¢	$92.99	$90.74	-$2.25
poshposhCTR	BakS eSportsavg 60.4¢	$231.66	$185.97	-$45.69	48% 1134-1214 (2348)
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	BakS eSportsavg 70¢	$1.4K	$179.4	-$145.72	57% 181-139 (320)
└ BakS eSports leg	BakS eSportsavg 70¢	$251.97	$124.2	-$287.13
└ ILLYRIANS leg	ILLYRIANSavg 65¢	$54.79	$55.21	+$141.4
AN anyjezzCTR	BakS eSportsavg 63.9¢	$262.45	$141.76	-$120.69	31% 11-25 (36)
TH thatsabing0	ILLYRIANSavg 23.1¢	$45.85	$130.08	+$84.23	63% 214-128 (342)
GA GaditimaCTR	BakS eSportsavg 54.4¢	$117.03	$99.98	-$17.05	48% 278-299 (577)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	ILLYRIANSavg 28.2¢	$55.49	$83.9	+$28.4	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
└ ILLYRIANS leg	ILLYRIANSavg 28.2¢	$33.66	$60.19	+$26.52
└ BakS eSports leg	BakS eSportsavg 45.6¢	$21.83	$23.71	+$1.88
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100	BakS eSportsavg 46¢	$53.55	$75	+$21.45	45% 381-474 (855)
└ ILLYRIANS leg	ILLYRIANSavg 25.4¢	$19.05	$38.63	+$19.58
└ BakS eSports leg	BakS eSportsavg 46¢	$34.5	$36.38	+$1.88
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	BakS eSportsavg 65.8¢	$41.77	$26.73	+$2.17	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
CI cigarettes<$100	ILLYRIANSavg 29¢	$1.18	$1.22	+$0.04	53% 7113-6221 (13334)

JuiceFarmCTR

BakS eSports

Invested

$780.99

Value

$753.49

PnL

-$27.5

Record

57%

46-35 (81)

alpheclabs2CTR

BakS eSports

Invested

$897.1

Value

$734.8

PnL

+$19.3

Record

46%

294-351 (645)

SlickRick123CTR

BakS eSports

Invested

$720.32

Value

$684.76

PnL

-$35.56

Record

34%

370-708 (1078)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$312.22

Value

$301.05

PnL

-$11.17

Record

61%

164-107 (271)

Both legs:

ILLYRIANS$115.8338.6¢+$78.97

BakS eSports$196.3964.7¢-$90.14

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

ILLYRIANS

Invested

$295.33

Value

$300.57

PnL

+$5.24

Record

55%

169-138 (307)

crabfavorARB<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$303.64

Value

$223.05

PnL

-$80.6

Record

58%

97-71 (168)

Both legs:

BakS eSports$210.6562.9¢-$78.35

ILLYRIANS$92.9962¢-$2.25

poshposhCTR

BakS eSports

Invested

$231.66

Value

$185.97

PnL

-$45.69

Record

48%

1134-1214 (2348)

319113331313111ARB<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$1,356.43

Value

$179.4

PnL

-$145.72

Record

57%

181-139 (320)

Both legs:

BakS eSports$251.9770¢-$287.13

ILLYRIANS$54.7965¢+$141.4

anyjezzCTR

BakS eSports

Invested

$262.45

Value

$141.76

PnL

-$120.69

Record

31%

11-25 (36)

thatsabing0

ILLYRIANS

Invested

$45.85

Value

$130.08

PnL

+$84.23

Record

63%

214-128 (342)

GaditimaCTR

BakS eSports

Invested

$117.03

Value

$99.98

PnL

-$17.05

Record

48%

278-299 (577)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

ILLYRIANS

Invested

$55.49

Value

$83.9

PnL

+$28.4

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

Both legs:

ILLYRIANS$33.6628.2¢+$26.52

BakS eSports$21.8345.6¢+$1.88

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$53.55

Value

$75

PnL

+$21.45

Record

45%

381-474 (855)

Both legs:

ILLYRIANS$19.0525.4¢+$19.58

BakS eSports$34.546¢+$1.88

Pan9XCTR<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$41.77

Value

$26.73

PnL

+$2.17

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

cigarettes<$100

ILLYRIANS

Invested

$1.18

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

Research grade

NeutralBakS eSports at 35%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

BakS eSports

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors ILLYRIANS 66%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on BakS eSports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBakS eSports 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000BakS eSports 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BakS eSports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.