Counter-Strike: B8 vs K27 - Map 2 Winner

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold K27 (50%) · K27 at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 27

B8<1¢K27>99¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

K27

Consensus Traders

K27 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

-$581.81

Smart Money Entry

37.3¢ → 100¢

+168% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralK27 at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

K27

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

B80%

K27100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

B85 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,243

Combined PnL-$132.97

K275 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares10,828

Combined PnL-$448.84

B8 — 50%K27 — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SP sportteryqqCTR	B8avg 67.5¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$130.65	40% 408-616 (1024)
UN Unknownpoluy	K27avg 32.5¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	-$474.38	43% 82-109 (191)
HO Hongweiqian	K27avg 34.4¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$90.05	46% 201-232 (433)
AS astapzippo	K27avg 67.7¢	$783.52	$804.02	+$20.5	56% 2100-1638 (3738)
itwasawholethingCTR	B8avg 65¢	$759.44	$730.23	-$29.21	60% 48-32 (80)
poshposhARB<$100	B8avg 65.6¢	$306.16	$307.81	+$1.65	60% 9071-5988 (15059)
└ B8 leg	B8avg 65.6¢	$230.09	$177.16	-$52.93
└ K27 leg	K27avg 28.8¢	$76.06	$130.65	+$54.58
CC ccllarCTR	B8avg 76.2¢	$246.4	$244.08	-$2.32	46% 392-464 (856)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569	K27avg 28.9¢	$212.52	$128.8	-$83.72	46% 873-1045 (1918)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	K27avg 97¢	$126.06	$124.76	-$1.3	52% 13465-12317 (25782)
GR GroolCTR	B8avg 37.8¢	$184.86	$52.5	-$8.02	54% 1584-1363 (2947)
TE testBruno2CTR	B8avg 67.5¢	$245.64	$1.88	+$37.23	57% 790-588 (1378)

sportteryqqCTR

Invested

$1,761

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$130.65

Record

40%

408-616 (1024)

Unknownpoluy

K27

Invested

$1,919.38

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$474.38

Record

43%

82-109 (191)

Hongweiqian

K27

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$90.05

Record

46%

201-232 (433)

astapzippo

K27

Invested

$783.52

Value

$804.02

PnL

+$20.5

Record

56%

2100-1638 (3738)

itwasawholethingCTR

Invested

$759.44

Value

$730.23

PnL

-$29.21

Record

60%

48-32 (80)

poshposhARB<$100

Invested

$306.16

Value

$307.81

PnL

+$1.65

Record

60%

9071-5988 (15059)

Both legs:

B8$230.0965.6¢-$52.93

K27$76.0628.8¢+$54.58

ccllarCTR

Invested

$246.4

Value

$244.08

PnL

-$2.32

Record

46%

392-464 (856)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569

K27

Invested

$212.52

Value

$128.8

PnL

-$83.72

Record

46%

873-1045 (1918)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

K27

Invested

$126.06

Value

$124.76

PnL

-$1.3

Record

52%

13465-12317 (25782)

GroolCTR

Invested

$184.86

Value

$52.5

PnL

-$8.02

Record

54%

1584-1363 (2947)

testBruno2CTR

Invested

$245.64

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$37.23

Record

57%

790-588 (1378)

Research grade

NeutralK27 at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

K27

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that K27 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.