Counter-Strike: B8 vs HOTU - Map 2 Winner

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold HOTU (71%) · HOTU at 100¢ · $28K held · ends Oct 29

B8<1¢HOTU>99¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

HOTU

Consensus Traders

HOTU 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.1K

Combined PnL

$497.86

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 100¢

+77% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralHOTU at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

HOTU

12 of 17 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

B80%

HOTU100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

HOTU12 traders

Total Value$20.3K

Total Shares24,210

Combined PnL+$249.62

B85 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,097

Combined PnL+$248.24

HOTU — 71%B8 — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	HOTUavg 56.5¢	$9.8K	$9.9K	+$14.16	53% 2322-2056 (4378)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	HOTUavg 56.4¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$62.51	52% 13642-12471 (26113)
IV Ivan948CTR	B8avg 49¢	$3.0K	$3.3K	+$279.24	43% 58-76 (134)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	HOTUavg 54.7¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$197.63	58% 18484-13569 (32053)
└ HOTU leg	HOTUavg 54.7¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$281.29
└ B8 leg	B8avg 49.5¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$83.67
46 467j6yj	HOTUavg 99¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$12.61	97% 3248-113 (3361)
DumplingBMF	HOTUavg 48.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$64.81	68% 1807-842 (2649)
TE testBruno2	HOTUavg 56.7¢	$6.6K	$1.0K	-$58.56	58% 827-604 (1431)
PA panpidaras1	HOTUavg 50.5¢	$1.0K	$955.17	-$82.91	52% 183-167 (350)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100	HOTUavg 58¢	$907.59	$908.69	+$1.09	53% 3128-2760 (5888)
└ B8 leg	B8avg 41.5¢	$369.79	$477.26	+$107.47
└ HOTU leg	HOTUavg 58¢	$537.8	$431.43	-$106.37
GT gt7238	HOTUavg 37¢	$267.88	$651.6	+$383.72	45% 599-729 (1328)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	B8avg 49.9¢	$2.0K	$475.61	$-1.1K	53% 1221-1074 (2295)
└ HOTU leg	HOTUavg 54.7¢	$170.5	$280.3	+$101.07
└ B8 leg	B8avg 49.9¢	$974.06	$195.31	$-1.2K
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569	HOTUavg 43.1¢	$229.29	$247.38	+$18.09	46% 899-1068 (1967)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	HOTUavg 53¢	$261.99	$229.86	-$32.13	50% 334-330 (664)
PA pauleta23CTR	B8avg 41¢	$164	$214	+$50	67% 23201-11598 (34799)
CC ccllar	HOTUavg 51¢	$204	$186	-$18	46% 405-474 (879)
SE seeeeeebCTR	B8avg 41¢	$164	$78	-$86	51% 707-677 (1384)
SE sentrio<$100	HOTUavg 51¢	$54.84	$50	-$4.84	50% 24874-24575 (49449)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	B8avg 48¢	$43.15	$48.09	+$4.94	49% 18813-19212 (38025)
SH shiifoo<$100	HOTUavg 42¢	$29.13	$37.91	+$19.78	60% 3283-2205 (5488)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	B8avg 51¢	$1.04	$1.09	+$0.05	58% 41203-29875 (71078)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

HOTU

Invested

$9,842.02

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$14.16

Record

53%

2322-2056 (4378)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

HOTU

Invested

$4,406.48

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$62.51

Record

52%

13642-12471 (26113)

Ivan948CTR

Invested

$3,040.67

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$279.24

Record

43%

58-76 (134)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

HOTU

Invested

$2,906.04

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$197.63

Record

58%

18484-13569 (32053)

Both legs:

HOTU$1,882.2254.7¢-$281.29

B8$1,023.8349.5¢+$83.67

467j6yj

HOTU

Invested

$1,314.31

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$12.61

Record

97%

3248-113 (3361)

DumplingBMF

HOTU

Invested

$1,324.41

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$64.81

Record

68%

1807-842 (2649)

testBruno2

HOTU

Invested

$6,572.42

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$58.56

Record

58%

827-604 (1431)

panpidaras1

HOTU

Invested

$1,038.08

Value

$955.17

PnL

-$82.91

Record

52%

183-167 (350)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100

HOTU

Invested

$907.59

Value

$908.69

PnL

+$1.09

Record

53%

3128-2760 (5888)

Both legs:

B8$369.7941.5¢+$107.47

HOTU$537.858¢-$106.37

gt7238

HOTU

Invested

$267.88

Value

$651.6

PnL

+$383.72

Record

45%

599-729 (1328)

calculate10ARB<$100

Invested

$2,019.99

Value

$475.61

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

53%

1221-1074 (2295)

Both legs:

HOTU$170.554.7¢+$101.07

B8$974.0649.9¢$-1.2K

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569

HOTU

Invested

$229.29

Value

$247.38

PnL

+$18.09

Record

46%

899-1068 (1967)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

HOTU

Invested

$261.99

Value

$229.86

PnL

-$32.13

Record

50%

334-330 (664)

pauleta23CTR

Invested

$164

Value

$214

PnL

+$50

Record

67%

23201-11598 (34799)

ccllar

HOTU

Invested

$204

Value

$186

PnL

-$18

Record

46%

405-474 (879)

seeeeeebCTR

Invested

$164

Value

$78

PnL

-$86

Record

51%

707-677 (1384)

sentrio<$100

HOTU

Invested

$54.84

Value

$50

PnL

-$4.84

Record

50%

24874-24575 (49449)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$43.15

Value

$48.09

PnL

+$4.94

Record

49%

18813-19212 (38025)

shiifoo<$100

HOTU

Invested

$29.13

Value

$37.91

PnL

+$19.78

Record

60%

3283-2205 (5488)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.09

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

41203-29875 (71078)

Research grade

NeutralHOTU at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

HOTU

12 of 17 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that HOTU wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.