Counter-Strike: B8 vs HOTU - Map 1 Winner

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold HOTU (62%) · HOTU at 100¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 29

B8<1¢HOTU>99¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

HOTU

Consensus Traders

HOTU 62%

Total Value

$14.2K

Combined PnL

$693.02

Smart Money Entry

70.5¢ → 100¢

+42% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralHOTU at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

HOTU

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

B80%

HOTU100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

HOTU8 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares12,553

Combined PnL+$411.65

B85 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,528

Combined PnL+$281.37

HOTU — 62%B8 — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	HOTUavg 66¢	$4.5K	$4.7K	+$197.14	53% 2322-2056 (4378)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	B8avg 46.9¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$268.18	52% 1210-1098 (2308)
46 467j6yj	HOTUavg 91.9¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$13.64	97% 3247-113 (3360)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	HOTUavg 83¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$127.66	52% 13638-12469 (26107)
BI BillBenter2026	HOTUavg 61.4¢	$941.51	$1.3K	+$338.76	58% 18480-13568 (32048)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	HOTUavg 53¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$119.61	50% 334-330 (664)
CR Crazyboy77CTR	B8avg 52¢	$520	$525	+$5	52% 173-162 (335)
CA calculate10	HOTUavg 87.1¢	$919.13	$182.71	-$108.61	53% 1221-1074 (2295)
AN anyjezzCTR	B8avg 18¢	$112.62	$115.74	+$3.13	49% 528-547 (1075)
TE testBruno2	HOTUavg 82¢	$1.8K	$102.68	-$37.5	58% 827-604 (1431)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	HOTUavg 47¢	$15.15	$15.31	+$0.16	49% 18807-19204 (38011)
PA panpidaras1CTR<$100	B8avg 14¢	$9.17	$10.8	+$1.64	52% 183-167 (350)
poshposhCTR<$100	B8avg 5¢	$3.11	$6.54	+$3.43	59% 9663-6648 (16311)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

HOTU

Invested

$4,538.79

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$197.14

Record

53%

2322-2056 (4378)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Invested

$2,238.66

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$268.18

Record

52%

1210-1098 (2308)

467j6yj

HOTU

Invested

$2,165.37

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$13.64

Record

97%

3247-113 (3360)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

HOTU

Invested

$1,367.23

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$127.66

Record

52%

13638-12469 (26107)

BillBenter2026

HOTU

Invested

$941.51

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$338.76

Record

58%

18480-13568 (32048)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

HOTU

Invested

$1,152.56

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$119.61

Record

50%

334-330 (664)

Crazyboy77CTR

Invested

$520

Value

$525

PnL

+$5

Record

52%

173-162 (335)

calculate10

HOTU

Invested

$919.13

Value

$182.71

PnL

-$108.61

Record

53%

1221-1074 (2295)

anyjezzCTR

Invested

$112.62

Value

$115.74

PnL

+$3.13

Record

49%

528-547 (1075)

testBruno2

HOTU

Invested

$1,762.32

Value

$102.68

PnL

-$37.5

Record

58%

827-604 (1431)

omnibus-076daa<$100

HOTU

Invested

$15.15

Value

$15.31

PnL

+$0.16

Record

49%

18807-19204 (38011)

panpidaras1CTR<$100

Invested

$9.17

Value

$10.8

PnL

+$1.64

Record

52%

183-167 (350)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$3.11

Value

$6.54

PnL

+$3.43

Record

59%

9663-6648 (16311)

Research grade

NeutralHOTU at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

HOTU

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that HOTU wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.