Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold HOTU, while the market favors B8 (59%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: B8 vs HOTU (BO3) - Tesla Cup Playoffs
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold HOTU (60%) · HOTU at 41¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
HOTU
5
HOTU 60%
$3.7K
$121.57
42.3¢ → 41¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralHOTU at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors B8 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR | HOTUavg 43¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$116.28 | 50% 334-330 (664) |
 hammyandcheeseCTR | HOTUavg 40¢ | $800 | $820 | +$20 | 57% 362-278 (640) |
 bernardi22 | B8avg 56.5¢ | $249.99 | $234.52 | -$13.25 | 56% 1248-967 (2215) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | HOTUavg 45.5¢ | $88.37 | $18.17 | -$1.39 | 58% 41030-29693 (70723) |
 HRTrading<$100 | B8avg 54.2¢ | $2.71 | $2.65 | -$0.06 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
Invested
$2,499.99
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$116.28
Record
50%
334-330 (664)
hammyandcheeseCTRInvested
$800
Value
$820
PnL
+$20
Record
57%
362-278 (640)
bernardi22Invested
$249.99
Value
$234.52
PnL
-$13.25
Record
56%
1248-967 (2215)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$88.37
Value
$18.17
PnL
-$1.39
Record
58%
41030-29693 (70723)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.71
Value
$2.65
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
3387-3055 (6442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.