Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold B8, while the market favors Alliance (61%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs Alliance (+1.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold B8 (71%) · B8 at 39¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 28

B839¢Alliance61¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

B8 71%

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

-$324.15

Smart Money Entry

39.9¢ → 39¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralB8 at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Alliance 61%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

B839%

Alliance61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

B85 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares24,787

Combined PnL-$335.28

Alliance2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,255

Combined PnL+$11.13

B8 — 71%Alliance — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JE jessy2CTR	B8avg 40¢	$5.9K	$5.6K	-$216.7	53% 94-83 (177)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR	B8avg 39¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$31.25	50% 330-326 (656)
MO Mooseborzoiii	Allianceavg 59¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$11.25	42% 24-33 (57)
SatanishippieCTR	B8avg 40.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$65.98	48% 298-320 (618)
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8CTR	B8avg 41¢	$242.49	$227.7	-$14.79	58% 80-57 (137)
0X 0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8CTR	B8avg 39.8¢	$193.77	$187.21	-$6.56	—
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Allianceavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.53	-$0.13	47% 2037-2339 (4376)

jessy2CTR

Invested

$5,860.63

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$216.7

Record

53%

94-83 (177)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR

Invested

$2,437.49

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$31.25

Record

50%

330-326 (656)

Mooseborzoiii

Alliance

Invested

$1,327.79

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$11.25

Record

42%

24-33 (57)

SatanishippieCTR

Invested

$1,143.98

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$65.98

Record

48%

298-320 (618)

0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8CTR

Invested

$242.49

Value

$227.7

PnL

-$14.79

Record

58%

80-57 (137)

0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8CTR

Invested

$193.77

Value

$187.21

PnL

-$6.56

Record

—

ameisgoat11<$100

Alliance

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$0.13

Record

47%

2037-2339 (4376)

Research grade

NeutralB8 at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Alliance 61%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that B8 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.2%

39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$142.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

242.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.