Counter-Strike: B8 vs Alliance (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group A
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold B8 (50%) · B8 at 68¢ · $22K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
B8
6
B8 50%
$21.9K
-$75.21
66.9¢ → 67.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralB8 at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LL lllllllIlll | B8avg 67¢ | $14.7K | $14.8K | +$109.42 | 55% 286-235 (521) |
VI vibing123CTR | Allianceavg 33¢ | $3.6K | $3.5K | -$110 | 52% 1538-1422 (2960) |
HU humbleboyCTR | Allianceavg 33¢ | $3.1K | $3.0K | -$95 | 54% 500-422 (922) |
 DumplingBMF | B8avg 65¢ | $290.68 | $304.1 | +$13.42 | 68% 1798-837 (2635) |
RA Rayaya | B8avg 66¢ | $266.79 | $274.88 | +$8.08 | 60% 1160-759 (1919) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Allianceavg 34¢ | $19.26 | $18.13 | -$1.13 | 49% 18554-18963 (37517) |
Invested
$14,662.55
Value
$14.8K
PnL
+$109.42
Record
55%
286-235 (521)
Invested
$3,630
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$110
Record
52%
1538-1422 (2960)
Invested
$3,139.49
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$95
Record
54%
500-422 (922)
DumplingBMFInvested
$290.68
Value
$304.1
PnL
+$13.42
Record
68%
1798-837 (2635)
Invested
$266.79
Value
$274.88
PnL
+$8.08
Record
60%
1160-759 (1919)
Invested
$19.26
Value
$18.13
PnL
-$1.13
Record
49%
18554-18963 (37517)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.