Counter-Strike: Axorfy Gaming vs Turma do Pagode - Map 2 Winner

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Turma do Pagode (82%) · Turma do Pagode at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Axorfy Gaming<1¢Turma do Pagode>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Turma do Pagode

Consensus Traders

Turma do Pagode 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$544.15

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 100¢

+67% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralTurma do Pagode at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Turma do Pagode

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Axorfy Gaming0%

Turma do Pagode100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Turma do Pagode9 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,762

Combined PnL+$547.96

Axorfy Gaming2 traders

Total Value$43.92

Total Shares110

Combined PnL-$3.81

Turma do Pagode — 82%Axorfy Gaming — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Turma do Pagode. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTurma do Pagode 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Turma do Pagode 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Turma do Pagodeavg 63.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$11.6	61% 157-102 (259)
31 319113331313111	Turma do Pagodeavg 76.2¢	$2.2K	$619.46	+$298.35	56% 174-134 (308)
alpheclabs2	Turma do Pagodeavg 37.5¢	$450.58	$564.25	+$113.67	45% 284-341 (625)
CR crabfavor	Turma do Pagodeavg 85.2¢	$516.75	$455.77	-$60.98	58% 95-69 (164)
poshposh	Turma do Pagodeavg 51.7¢	$306.72	$424.08	+$117.36	48% 1104-1175 (2279)
TO topdogbigboi	Turma do Pagodeavg 42.1¢	$274.49	$343.92	+$69.44	37% 1022-1710 (2732)
Future-Tarot-Trader	Turma do Pagodeavg 97.9¢	$584.3	$261.18	-$9.88	55% 143-117 (260)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Axorfy Gamingavg 50¢	$262.5	$236.25	-$26.25	52% 815-747 (1562)
└ Axorfy Gaming leg	Axorfy Gamingavg 50¢	$131.25	$141.75	+$10.5
└ Turma do Pagode leg	Turma do Pagodeavg 50¢	$131.25	$94.5	-$36.75
LR lryyy	Turma do Pagodeavg 64.5¢	$96.07	$127.44	+$31.38	45% 801-984 (1785)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Axorfy Gamingavg 55¢	$37.73	$43.9	+$6.17	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
SH shiifoo<$100	Turma do Pagodeavg 86¢	$4.3	$4.53	+$0.23	61% 1424-903 (2327)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Axorfy Gamingavg 24¢	$10	$0.02	-$9.98	40% 428-649 (1077)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$1,272.36

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$11.6

Record

61%

157-102 (259)

319113331313111

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$2,199.64

Value

$619.46

PnL

+$298.35

Record

56%

174-134 (308)

alpheclabs2

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$450.58

Value

$564.25

PnL

+$113.67

Record

45%

284-341 (625)

crabfavor

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$516.75

Value

$455.77

PnL

-$60.98

Record

58%

95-69 (164)

poshposh

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$306.72

Value

$424.08

PnL

+$117.36

Record

48%

1104-1175 (2279)

topdogbigboi

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$274.49

Value

$343.92

PnL

+$69.44

Record

37%

1022-1710 (2732)

Future-Tarot-Trader

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$584.3

Value

$261.18

PnL

-$9.88

Record

55%

143-117 (260)

NotJumpARB<$100

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$262.5

Value

$236.25

PnL

-$26.25

Record

52%

815-747 (1562)

Both legs:

Axorfy Gaming$131.2550¢+$10.5

Turma do Pagode$131.2550¢-$36.75

lryyy

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$96.07

Value

$127.44

PnL

+$31.38

Record

45%

801-984 (1785)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$37.73

Value

$43.9

PnL

+$6.17

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

shiifoo<$100

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.53

PnL

+$0.23

Record

61%

1424-903 (2327)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$10

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$9.98

Record

40%

428-649 (1077)

Research grade

NeutralTurma do Pagode at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Turma do Pagode

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Turma do Pagode. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTurma do Pagode 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Turma do Pagode 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Turma do Pagode wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.