Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs DimoniX Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #10 Playoffs
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora Young Blood (67%) · Aurora Young Blood at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28
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Neutral
Aurora Young Blood
6
Aurora Young Blood 67%
$1.5K
-$41.99
55.7¢ → 100¢
+79% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralAurora Young Blood at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Aurora Young Bloodavg 59.5¢ | $759.2 | $743.25 | -$15.96 | 53% 2205-1970 (4175) |
 diceking | Aurora Young Bloodavg 52.9¢ | $585.08 | $641.51 | +$56.43 | 57% 315-234 (549) |
 poshposh<$100 | Aurora Young Bloodavg 64.3¢ | $47.92 | $45.66 | -$2.26 | 60% 9388-6379 (15767) |
TE testBruno2<$100 | Aurora Young Bloodavg 55.9¢ | $82.45 | $17.58 | +$13.01 | 58% 811-599 (1410) |
0X 0x4f2CTR | DimoniX Esportsavg 43¢ | $109.03 | $17.12 | -$91.91 | 52% 9103-8501 (17604) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | DimoniX Esportsavg 4.6¢ | $3.81 | $2.5 | -$1.31 | 49% 18616-19046 (37662) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$759.2
Value
$743.25
PnL
-$15.96
Record
53%
2205-1970 (4175)
dicekingInvested
$585.08
Value
$641.51
PnL
+$56.43
Record
57%
315-234 (549)
poshposh<$100Invested
$47.92
Value
$45.66
PnL
-$2.26
Record
60%
9388-6379 (15767)
Invested
$82.45
Value
$17.58
PnL
+$13.01
Record
58%
811-599 (1410)
Invested
$109.03
Value
$17.12
PnL
-$91.91
Record
52%
9103-8501 (17604)
Invested
$3.81
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$1.31
Record
49%
18616-19046 (37662)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.