Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora Gaming (50%) · Aurora Gaming at 68¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Aurora Gaming
4
Aurora Gaming 50%
$2.0K
$10.97
69.9¢ → 68¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralAurora Gaming at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 relativesignificance | Aurora Gamingavg 70.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$8.34 | 56% 115-90 (205) |
LU LucasCosta. | Aurora Gamingavg 69¢ | $324.29 | $324.29 | -$2.35 | 41% 333-479 (812) |
VE VetchCTR | Liquidavg 29¢ | $91.64 | $101.12 | +$1.58 | 60% 366-241 (607) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Liquidavg 29¢ | $32.9 | $32.47 | +$3.4 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
relativesignificanceInvested
$1,542.72
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$8.34
Record
56%
115-90 (205)
Invested
$324.29
Value
$324.29
PnL
-$2.35
Record
41%
333-479 (812)
Invested
$91.64
Value
$101.12
PnL
+$1.58
Record
60%
366-241 (607)
Invested
$32.9
Value
$32.47
PnL
+$3.4
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.