Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Games Total: O/U 2.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $803 held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 29%
$803.25
$7.51
44.8¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Overavg 44.5¢ | $527 | $526.75 | -$0.24 | 54% 56027-48153 (104180) |
 StudyPredictionCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $112.68 | $113.91 | +$1.22 | 53% 4564-3975 (8539) |
 forsenxd<$100 | Underavg 51.8¢ | $68.24 | $70.51 | +$2.26 | 53% 1048-915 (1963) |
BA BAPEHUK<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $59.09 | $60.73 | +$1.64 | 49% 406-420 (826) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $21.3 | $23.75 | +$2.44 | 59% 9676-6661 (16337) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $6.5 | $6.69 | +$0.19 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $0.93 | $0.92 | -$0.01 | 47% 2163-2470 (4633) |
RN1CTRInvested
$527
Value
$526.75
PnL
-$0.24
Record
54%
56027-48153 (104180)
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$112.68
Value
$113.91
PnL
+$1.22
Record
53%
4564-3975 (8539)
forsenxd<$100Invested
$68.24
Value
$70.51
PnL
+$2.26
Record
53%
1048-915 (1963)
Invested
$59.09
Value
$60.73
PnL
+$1.64
Record
49%
406-420 (826)
poshposh<$100Invested
$21.3
Value
$23.75
PnL
+$2.44
Record
59%
9676-6661 (16337)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$6.5
Value
$6.69
PnL
+$0.19
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
Invested
$0.93
Value
$0.92
PnL
-$0.01
Record
47%
2163-2470 (4633)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.