Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner

21 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (62%) · MOUZ at 100¢ · $140K held · ends Oct 29

Aurora Gaming<1¢MOUZ>99¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$140.5K

Combined PnL

$6.0K

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 100¢

+39% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

21 of 34 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Aurora Gaming0%

MOUZ100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ21 traders

Total Value$126.4K

Total Shares157,057

Combined PnL+$6.1K

Aurora Gaming13 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares34,113

Combined PnL-$117.2

MOUZ — 62%Aurora Gaming — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	MOUZavg 57¢	$27.5K	$32.3K	+$5.1K	49% 18818-19217 (38035)
c4acap	MOUZavg 99.9¢	$29.2K	$29.3K	+$14.64	98% 2395-40 (2435)
RN1	MOUZavg 77.5¢	$13.4K	$11.5K	$-1.9K	54% 56027-48153 (104180)
KK KkunnCTR	Aurora Gamingavg 44¢	$9.7K	$9.8K	+$110.38	44% 222-282 (504)
II iii252	MOUZavg 85.2¢	$16.4K	$9.1K	-$419.85	57% 1116-856 (1972)
FK fkAL	MOUZavg 56¢	$3.7K	$6.3K	+$2.6K	63% 2017-1188 (3205)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	MOUZavg 73.6¢	$5.9K	$6.1K	+$185.34	52% 13648-12476 (26124)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinha	MOUZavg 56¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$41.58	51% 70-66 (136)
RNGUzi	MOUZavg 55.8¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$50.45	51% 220-215 (435)
AA aaaa298	MOUZavg 88.7¢	$8.8K	$4.1K	+$339.05	59% 763-540 (1303)
46 467j6yj	MOUZavg 99¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$18.1	97% 3253-113 (3366)
cruzNBA	MOUZavg 74¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$44.84	42% 399-555 (954)
saintaphextwin	MOUZavg 56¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$27.77	38% 386-620 (1006)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	MOUZavg 57¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$21	51% 1353-1295 (2648)
Q7 q7662504	MOUZavg 94¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$26.92	88% 372-49 (421)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 33¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$313.18	58% 18489-13574 (32063)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 68.9¢	$756.26	$976.33	+$220.07
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 33¢	$799.54	$266.29	-$533.25
CORGII	MOUZavg 55¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10.82	41% 387-561 (948)
DE delacsynzy1	MOUZavg 56¢	$1.0K	$991.07	-$8.93	52% 444-418 (862)
CA calm919	MOUZavg 85.6¢	$1,000	$963.43	-$36.57	68% 255-122 (377)
StudyPredictionCTR	Aurora Gamingavg 42¢	$839.99	$849.99	+$10	53% 4564-3975 (8539)
forsenxd	MOUZavg 93¢	$726.88	$738.6	+$11.72	53% 1048-915 (1963)
UN UnknownpoluyCTR	Aurora Gamingavg 11.2¢	$700	$561.02	-$138.98	44% 95-121 (216)
RU Ruler11CTR	Aurora Gamingavg 44¢	$500	$494.32	-$5.68	51% 292-281 (573)
CH chillhouse123	MOUZavg 76.9¢	$333.02	$355.2	+$22.18	52% 3681-3341 (7022)
BA BAPEHUK	MOUZavg 54¢	$318.89	$321.84	+$2.95	49% 406-420 (826)

omnibus-076daa

MOUZ

Invested

$27,451.71

Value

$32.3K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

49%

18818-19217 (38035)

c4acap

MOUZ

Invested

$29,248.11

Value

$29.3K

PnL

+$14.64

Record

98%

2395-40 (2435)

RN1

MOUZ

Invested

$13,351.4

Value

$11.5K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

54%

56027-48153 (104180)

KkunnCTR

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$9,713.54

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$110.38

Record

44%

222-282 (504)

iii252

MOUZ

Invested

$16,368.77

Value

$9.1K

PnL

-$419.85

Record

57%

1116-856 (1972)

fkAL

MOUZ

Invested

$3,748.76

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

63%

2017-1188 (3205)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

MOUZ

Invested

$5,866.97

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$185.34

Record

52%

13648-12476 (26124)

AnibalAugustoSardinha

MOUZ

Invested

$4,657.44

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$41.58

Record

51%

70-66 (136)

RNGUzi

MOUZ

Invested

$4,109.9

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$50.45

Record

51%

220-215 (435)

aaaa298

MOUZ

Invested

$8,816.55

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$339.05

Record

59%

763-540 (1303)

467j6yj

MOUZ

Invested

$3,584.75

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$18.1

Record

97%

3253-113 (3366)

cruzNBA

MOUZ

Invested

$3,403.69

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$44.84

Record

42%

399-555 (954)

saintaphextwin

MOUZ

Invested

$3,110.8

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$27.77

Record

38%

386-620 (1006)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

MOUZ

Invested

$2,394

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$21

Record

51%

1353-1295 (2648)

q7662504

MOUZ

Invested

$1,686.95

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$26.92

Record

88%

372-49 (421)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,555.8

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$313.18

Record

58%

18489-13574 (32063)

Both legs:

MOUZ$756.2668.9¢+$220.07

Aurora Gaming$799.5433¢-$533.25

CORGII

MOUZ

Invested

$1,189.76

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10.82

Record

41%

387-561 (948)

delacsynzy1

MOUZ

Invested

$1,000

Value

$991.07

PnL

-$8.93

Record

52%

444-418 (862)

calm919

MOUZ

Invested

$1,000

Value

$963.43

PnL

-$36.57

Record

68%

255-122 (377)

StudyPredictionCTR

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$839.99

Value

$849.99

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

4564-3975 (8539)

forsenxd

MOUZ

Invested

$726.88

Value

$738.6

PnL

+$11.72

Record

53%

1048-915 (1963)

UnknownpoluyCTR

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$700

Value

$561.02

PnL

-$138.98

Record

44%

95-121 (216)

Ruler11CTR

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$500

Value

$494.32

PnL

-$5.68

Record

51%

292-281 (573)

chillhouse123

MOUZ

Invested

$333.02

Value

$355.2

PnL

+$22.18

Record

52%

3681-3341 (7022)

BAPEHUK

MOUZ

Invested

$318.89

Value

$321.84

PnL

+$2.95

Record

49%

406-420 (826)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

21 of 34 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.