Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner

13 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (48%) · MOUZ at 100¢ · $132K held · ends Oct 29

Aurora Gaming<1¢MOUZ>99¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 48%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$131.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

91.9¢ → 100¢

+9% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

13 of 27 top traders (48%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Aurora Gaming0%

MOUZ100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ13 traders

Total Value$115.8K

Total Shares120,465

Combined PnL-$304.17

Aurora Gaming14 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares68,835

Combined PnL$-1.4K

MOUZ — 48%Aurora Gaming — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE depresssin	MOUZavg 99.9¢	$32.0K	$32.0K	+$16.3	85% 1264-225 (1489)
c4acap	MOUZavg 99.9¢	$30.0K	$30.1K	+$15.03	98% 2395-40 (2435)
46 467j6yj	MOUZavg 97.3¢	$22.2K	$22.7K	+$500.64	97% 3253-113 (3366)
II iii252	MOUZavg 82.3¢	$15.2K	$14.8K	-$430.32	57% 1116-856 (1972)
RN1ARB<$100	MOUZavg 58.8¢	$9.7K	$10.9K	+$1.2K	54% 56027-48153 (104180)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 58.8¢	$5.9K	$8.4K	+$2.5K
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 24.8¢	$3.8K	$2.5K	$-1.3K
OM omnibus-076daa	MOUZavg 63.5¢	$5.4K	$5.2K	-$211.61	49% 18818-19217 (38035)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	MOUZavg 75.4¢	$4.7K	$4.9K	+$145.62	52% 13648-12476 (26124)
cruzNBACTR	Aurora Gamingavg 48.4¢	$4.2K	$3.4K	-$818.14	42% 399-555 (954)
AA aaaa298	MOUZavg 62.5¢	$2.8K	$2.5K	-$266.95	59% 763-540 (1303)
BI BillBenter2026	MOUZavg 68.7¢	$953.59	$1.2K	+$206.22	58% 18489-13574 (32063)
cs2.quant	MOUZavg 79.1¢	$1.0K	$771.18	-$228.82	58% 82-60 (142)
0X 0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872	MOUZavg 66.7¢	$793.5	$725.53	-$67.97	43% 333-443 (776)
FK fkALCTR	Aurora Gamingavg 19¢	$630.92	$547.91	-$83.02	63% 2017-1188 (3205)
FR frohp5	MOUZavg 97¢	$500	$497.42	-$2.58	65% 1971-1049 (3020)
PI PIPIZINCTR	Aurora Gamingavg 56.4¢	$600	$415.16	-$184.84	52% 405-380 (785)
CH chillhouse123	MOUZavg 76.6¢	$501.27	$369.46	+$20.92	52% 3681-3341 (7022)
AS astapzippoCTR	Aurora Gamingavg 35¢	$245	$272.99	+$28	56% 2137-1679 (3816)
teardropsaidmynameCTR	Aurora Gamingavg 55¢	$274.99	$195	-$80	51% 414-392 (806)
PA panpidaras1	MOUZavg 80¢	$104.76	$104.11	-$0.65	52% 183-169 (352)
MA manoamanoCTR<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 27¢	$48.85	$70.56	+$21.71	51% 455-441 (896)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 33¢	$56.33	$66.57	+$10.24	58% 41216-29879 (71095)
poshposhCTR<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 46¢	$89.35	$29.29	-$60.05	59% 9676-6661 (16337)
noreasapaCTR<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 0.1¢	$67.47	$26.5	-$18.87	91% 3568-333 (3901)
AO aomendushen008CTR<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 10.7¢	$64	$21	-$43	50% 931-917 (1848)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 41¢	$12.3	$11.7	-$0.6	63% 1100-656 (1756)

depresssin

MOUZ

Invested

$31,953.7

Value

$32.0K

PnL

+$16.3

Record

85%

1264-225 (1489)

c4acap

MOUZ

Invested

$30,037.65

Value

$30.1K

PnL

+$15.03

Record

98%

2395-40 (2435)

467j6yj

MOUZ

Invested

$22,242.36

Value

$22.7K

PnL

+$500.64

Record

97%

3253-113 (3366)

iii252

MOUZ

Invested

$15,234.42

Value

$14.8K

PnL

-$430.32

Record

57%

1116-856 (1972)

RN1ARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$9,697.42

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

54%

56027-48153 (104180)

Both legs:

MOUZ$5,921.458.8¢+$2.5K

Aurora Gaming$3,776.0124.8¢$-1.3K

omnibus-076daa

MOUZ

Invested

$5,428.51

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$211.61

Record

49%

18818-19217 (38035)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

MOUZ

Invested

$4,707.22

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$145.62

Record

52%

13648-12476 (26124)

cruzNBACTR

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$4,202.64

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$818.14

Record

42%

399-555 (954)

aaaa298

MOUZ

Invested

$2,801.4

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$266.95

Record

59%

763-540 (1303)

BillBenter2026

MOUZ

Invested

$953.59

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$206.22

Record

58%

18489-13574 (32063)

cs2.quant

MOUZ

Invested

$1,000

Value

$771.18

PnL

-$228.82

Record

58%

82-60 (142)

0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872

MOUZ

Invested

$793.5

Value

$725.53

PnL

-$67.97

Record

43%

333-443 (776)

fkALCTR

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$630.92

Value

$547.91

PnL

-$83.02

Record

63%

2017-1188 (3205)

frohp5

MOUZ

Invested

$500

Value

$497.42

PnL

-$2.58

Record

65%

1971-1049 (3020)

PIPIZINCTR

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$600

Value

$415.16

PnL

-$184.84

Record

52%

405-380 (785)

chillhouse123

MOUZ

Invested

$501.27

Value

$369.46

PnL

+$20.92

Record

52%

3681-3341 (7022)

astapzippoCTR

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$245

Value

$272.99

PnL

+$28

Record

56%

2137-1679 (3816)

teardropsaidmynameCTR

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$274.99

Value

$195

PnL

-$80

Record

51%

414-392 (806)

panpidaras1

MOUZ

Invested

$104.76

Value

$104.11

PnL

-$0.65

Record

52%

183-169 (352)

manoamanoCTR<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$48.85

Value

$70.56

PnL

+$21.71

Record

51%

455-441 (896)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$56.33

Value

$66.57

PnL

+$10.24

Record

58%

41216-29879 (71095)

poshposhCTR<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$89.35

Value

$29.29

PnL

-$60.05

Record

59%

9676-6661 (16337)

noreasapaCTR<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$67.47

Value

$26.5

PnL

-$18.87

Record

91%

3568-333 (3901)

aomendushen008CTR<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$64

Value

$21

PnL

-$43

Record

50%

931-917 (1848)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$12.3

Value

$11.7

PnL

-$0.6

Record

63%

1100-656 (1756)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

13 of 27 top traders (48%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.