Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold G2 (67%) · G2 at 54¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
G2
9
G2 67%
$22.2K
$582.32
69.8¢ → 54¢
-23% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralG2 at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on G2. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 relativesignificance | G2avg 70¢ | $12.5K | $12.7K | +$179.18 | 56% 126-98 (224) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F | G2avg 69.1¢ | $4.3K | $4.4K | +$119.41 | 56% 207-160 (367) |
 forsenxdCTR | Aurora Gamingavg 30¢ | $3.2K | $3.1K | -$108.19 | 53% 1080-947 (2027) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Aurora Gamingavg 29.9¢ | $809.37 | $1.1K | +$399.08 | 58% 43898-31943 (75841) |
 JohnLKellyJrCTR | Aurora Gamingavg 30¢ | $450 | $435 | -$15 | 53% 1292-1168 (2460) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | G2avg 70¢ | $280 | $284 | +$4 | 51% 1616-1562 (3178) |
 FeedTheBigBird | G2avg 69¢ | $124.91 | $128.53 | +$3.62 | 47% 54-62 (116) |
YI yishiwucheng<$100 | G2avg 60.3¢ | $10.63 | $12.52 | +$1.89 | 51% 1856-1793 (3649) |
SU suntori<$100 | G2avg 71¢ | $6.76 | $5.09 | -$1.67 | 45% 13208-16070 (29278) |
relativesignificanceInvested
$12,542.43
Value
$12.7K
PnL
+$179.18
Record
56%
126-98 (224)
Invested
$4,287.51
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$119.41
Record
56%
207-160 (367)
forsenxdCTRInvested
$3,245.65
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$108.19
Record
53%
1080-947 (2027)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$809.37
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$399.08
Record
58%
43898-31943 (75841)
JohnLKellyJrCTRInvested
$450
Value
$435
PnL
-$15
Record
53%
1292-1168 (2460)
Invested
$280
Value
$284
PnL
+$4
Record
51%
1616-1562 (3178)
FeedTheBigBirdInvested
$124.91
Value
$128.53
PnL
+$3.62
Record
47%
54-62 (116)
Invested
$10.63
Value
$12.52
PnL
+$1.89
Record
51%
1856-1793 (3649)
Invested
$6.76
Value
$5.09
PnL
-$1.67
Record
45%
13208-16070 (29278)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
relativesignificance
G2 — $12.7K
0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F
G2 — $4.4K
forsenxd
CTRAurora Gaming — $3.1K
VeryLucky888
CTRAurora Gaming — $1.1K
JohnLKellyJr
CTRAurora Gaming — $435
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080
G2 — $284
FeedTheBigBird
G2 — $128.53
yishiwucheng
G2 — $12.52
suntori
G2 — $5.09