Counter-Strike: Astralis vs magic - Map 2 Winner

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold magic (50%) · magic at 77¢ · $46K held · ends Oct 28

Astralis24¢magic76¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

magic

Consensus Traders

magic 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$46.2K

Combined PnL

$5.6K

Smart Money Entry

36.1¢ → 76.5¢

+112% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Neutralmagic at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

magic

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Astralis24%

magic77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

magic5 traders

Total Value$18.4K

Total Shares29,426

Combined PnL+$6.9K

Astralis5 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares16,480

Combined PnL$-1.3K

magic — 50%Astralis — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Astralisavg 44.6¢	$10.7K	$9.6K	$-1.1K	54% 55710-47796 (103506)
└ Astralis leg	Astralisavg 44.6¢	$8.3K	$5.3K	$-3.0K
└ magic leg	magicavg 40.4¢	$2.4K	$4.3K	+$1.9K
AA aaaa298	magicavg 32.1¢	$3.8K	$8.9K	+$5.1K	58% 745-532 (1277)
PN pnhctARB<$100	Astralisavg 52.4¢	$8.8K	$8.7K	-$110.12	54% 450-390 (840)
└ magic leg	magicavg 45.4¢	$3.6K	$5.0K	+$1.4K
└ Astralis leg	Astralisavg 52.4¢	$5.2K	$3.7K	$-1.5K
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Astralisavg 65.1¢	$8.8K	$7.3K	$-1.4K	53% 1199-1077 (2276)
OM omnibus-076daa	magicavg 40.5¢	$4.3K	$4.7K	+$428.73	49% 18595-19018 (37613)
II iii252	magicavg 31.8¢	$1.9K	$3.1K	+$1.3K	56% 1093-846 (1939)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Astralisavg 49.6¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$33.29	52% 13552-12397 (25949)
FO forget4	magicavg 41¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$112.19	43% 680-886 (1566)
AN anyjezzCTR	Astralisavg 50.9¢	$474.81	$517.49	+$42.68	49% 525-536 (1061)
GT gt7238	magicavg 34¢	$241.4	$244.95	+$3.55	45% 590-718 (1308)
poshposhCTR	Astralisavg 60.9¢	$151.1	$161.15	+$10.05	60% 9359-6343 (15702)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Astralisavg 74¢	$7.4	$5.55	-$1.85	50% 7647-7671 (15318)

RN1ARB<$100

Astralis

Invested

$10,686.13

Value

$9.6K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

54%

55710-47796 (103506)

Both legs:

Astralis$8,256.3844.6¢$-3.0K

magic$2,429.7640.4¢+$1.9K

aaaa298

magic

Invested

$3,779.74

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

58%

745-532 (1277)

pnhctARB<$100

Astralis

Invested

$8,769.92

Value

$8.7K

PnL

-$110.12

Record

54%

450-390 (840)

Both legs:

magic$3,598.5745.4¢+$1.4K

Astralis$5,171.3552.4¢$-1.5K

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Astralis

Invested

$8,766.16

Value

$7.3K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

53%

1199-1077 (2276)

omnibus-076daa

magic

Invested

$4,308.08

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$428.73

Record

49%

18595-19018 (37613)

iii252

magic

Invested

$1,889.35

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

56%

1093-846 (1939)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Astralis

Invested

$1,473.15

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$33.29

Record

52%

13552-12397 (25949)

forget4

magic

Invested

$1,314.24

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$112.19

Record

43%

680-886 (1566)

anyjezzCTR

Astralis

Invested

$474.81

Value

$517.49

PnL

+$42.68

Record

49%

525-536 (1061)

gt7238

magic

Invested

$241.4

Value

$244.95

PnL

+$3.55

Record

45%

590-718 (1308)

poshposhCTR

Astralis

Invested

$151.1

Value

$161.15

PnL

+$10.05

Record

60%

9359-6343 (15702)

RLWGCTR<$100

Astralis

Invested

$7.4

Value

$5.55

PnL

-$1.85

Record

50%

7647-7671 (15318)

Research grade

Neutralmagic at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

magic

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.