Counter-Strike: Astralis vs magic - Map 1 Winner

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Astralis (62%) · Astralis at 100¢ · $31K held · ends Oct 28

Astralis>99¢magic<1¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Astralis

Consensus Traders

Astralis 62%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.1K

Combined PnL

$830.8

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralAstralis at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Astralis

8 of 13 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Astralis100%

magic0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Astralis8 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares12,814

Combined PnL+$2.0K

magic5 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares21,777

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Astralis — 62%magic — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
II iii252ARB<$100	Astralisavg 60.8¢	$4.8K	$9.8K	+$5.1K	56% 1093-846 (1939)
└ Astralis leg	Astralisavg 60.8¢	$4.3K	$6.2K	+$2.0K
└ magic leg	magicavg 1.5¢	$475.93	$3.6K	+$3.1K
PN pnhct	Astralisavg 81.5¢	$5.1K	$5.2K	+$35.87	54% 450-390 (840)
AA aaaa298	Astralisavg 69.3¢	$5.6K	$3.8K	+$2.2K	58% 745-532 (1277)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	magicavg 53.1¢	$4.1K	$3.6K	-$429.46	53% 1199-1077 (2276)
RN1CTR	magicavg 22.5¢	$3.9K	$3.1K	-$786.97	54% 55709-47794 (103503)
IV Ivan948CTR	magicavg 36¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$25.54	44% 52-67 (119)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Astralisavg 74.3¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$62.59	52% 13549-12397 (25946)
DE delacsynzy1	Astralisavg 60.5¢	$1,000	$834.69	-$165.31	51% 432-415 (847)
GT gt7238ARB<$100	magicavg 30.6¢	$702.47	$824.13	+$121.66	45% 590-718 (1308)
└ Astralis leg	Astralisavg 46¢	$304.02	$492.38	+$188.36
└ magic leg	magicavg 30.6¢	$398.46	$331.75	-$66.7
poshposh	Astralisavg 69.2¢	$288.94	$290.02	+$1.08	60% 9356-6329 (15685)
0X 0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538<$100	Astralisavg 46¢	$46	$52.5	+$6.5	68% 1438-685 (2123)
AD adururu<$100	Astralisavg 82¢	$16.59	$16.39	-$0.2	53% 355-309 (664)
OX oxe78sh4w98<$100	Astralisavg 82¢	$16.59	$16.39	-$0.2	53% 327-291 (618)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	magicavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.75	+$0.05	50% 7643-7662 (15305)
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR	magicavg 29.4¢	$2.7K	$0.03	+$42.13	54% 1052-892 (1944)

iii252ARB<$100

Astralis

Invested

$4,763.29

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

56%

1093-846 (1939)

Both legs:

Astralis$4,287.3660.8¢+$2.0K

magic$475.931.5¢+$3.1K

pnhct

Astralis

Invested

$5,130.77

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$35.87

Record

54%

450-390 (840)

aaaa298

Astralis

Invested

$5,631.54

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

58%

745-532 (1277)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

magic

Invested

$4,059.97

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$429.46

Record

53%

1199-1077 (2276)

RN1CTR

magic

Invested

$3,865.62

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$786.97

Record

54%

55709-47794 (103503)

Ivan948CTR

magic

Invested

$1,967.4

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$25.54

Record

44%

52-67 (119)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Astralis

Invested

$1,712.37

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$62.59

Record

52%

13549-12397 (25946)

delacsynzy1

Astralis

Invested

$1,000

Value

$834.69

PnL

-$165.31

Record

51%

432-415 (847)

gt7238ARB<$100

magic

Invested

$702.47

Value

$824.13

PnL

+$121.66

Record

45%

590-718 (1308)

Both legs:

Astralis$304.0246¢+$188.36

magic$398.4630.6¢-$66.7

poshposh

Astralis

Invested

$288.94

Value

$290.02

PnL

+$1.08

Record

60%

9356-6329 (15685)

0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538<$100

Astralis

Invested

$46

Value

$52.5

PnL

+$6.5

Record

68%

1438-685 (2123)

adururu<$100

Astralis

Invested

$16.59

Value

$16.39

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

355-309 (664)

oxe78sh4w98<$100

Astralis

Invested

$16.59

Value

$16.39

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

327-291 (618)

RLWGCTR<$100

magic

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

7643-7662 (15305)

TommyLeePeecaCTR

magic

Invested

$2,742.12

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$42.13

Record

54%

1052-892 (1944)

Research grade

NeutralAstralis at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Astralis

8 of 13 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Astralis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.