Counter-Strike: Astralis vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Astralis (78%) · Astralis at 54¢ · $103K held · ends Oct 28

Astralis54¢magic46¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Astralis

Consensus Traders

Astralis 78%

Total Value

$102.5K

Combined PnL

$6.61

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 53.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralAstralis at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Astralis

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Astralis54%

magic47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

magic2 traders

Total Value$49.0K

Total Shares103,166

Combined PnL+$452.52

Astralis7 traders

Total Value$53.6K

Total Shares101,974

Combined PnL-$445.91

magic — 22%Astralis — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlllCTR	magicavg 47¢	$47.0K	$47.5K	+$500	55% 286-235 (521)
yabanci	Astralisavg 53¢	$45.6K	$45.2K	-$430.57	59% 46-32 (78)
VI vibing123	Astralisavg 53¢	$6.5K	$6.5K	-$61.44	52% 1538-1422 (2960)
KateBollingerCTR	magicavg 48¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$47.48	69% 1724-784 (2508)
StudyPrediction	Astralisavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$30	53% 4536-3953 (8489)
LU LucasCosta.	Astralisavg 52.5¢	$624.7	$636.65	+$11.95	41% 326-469 (795)
WI Wiretransferxyz	Astralisavg 52¢	$102.23	$101.24	-$0.98	53% 746-651 (1397)
poshposh<$100	Astralisavg 47.9¢	$44.05	$49.19	+$5.14	60% 9276-6223 (15499)
MA manoamano<$100	Astralisavg 53¢	$48.89	$48.89	+$0	51% 439-423 (862)

lllllllIlllCTR

magic

Invested

$46,999.98

Value

$47.5K

PnL

+$500

Record

55%

286-235 (521)

yabanci

Astralis

Invested

$45,640.59

Value

$45.2K

PnL

-$430.57

Record

59%

46-32 (78)

vibing123

Astralis

Invested

$6,513.05

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$61.44

Record

52%

1538-1422 (2960)

KateBollingerCTR

magic

Invested

$1,519.5

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$47.48

Record

69%

1724-784 (2508)

StudyPrediction

Astralis

Invested

$1,040

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$30

Record

53%

4536-3953 (8489)

LucasCosta.

Astralis

Invested

$624.7

Value

$636.65

PnL

+$11.95

Record

41%

326-469 (795)

Wiretransferxyz

Astralis

Invested

$102.23

Value

$101.24

PnL

-$0.98

Record

53%

746-651 (1397)

poshposh<$100

Astralis

Invested

$44.05

Value

$49.19

PnL

+$5.14

Record

60%

9276-6223 (15499)

manoamano<$100

Astralis

Invested

$48.89

Value

$48.89

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

439-423 (862)

Research grade

NeutralAstralis at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Astralis

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Astralis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.