Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs fnatic (+1.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold fnatic (43%) · fnatic at 70¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27

Astralis31¢fnatic69¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

fnatic

Consensus Traders

fnatic 43%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$55.56

Smart Money Entry

75.7¢ → 69.5¢

-8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Astralis31%

fnatic70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

fnatic3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,276

Combined PnL-$302.71

Astralis4 traders

Total Value$964.98

Total Shares3,355

Combined PnL+$247.15

fnatic — 43%Astralis — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Reformedx	fnaticavg 75¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$170	52% 769-714 (1483)
LO lonmi2511	fnaticavg 77.2¢	$908.47	$782.25	-$126.21	63% 1045-602 (1647)
JE jessy2CTR	Astralisavg 26.6¢	$3.6K	$760.3	+$233.21	54% 90-77 (167)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR<$100	Astralisavg 29.3¢	$94.1	$97.9	+$3.8	55% 124-100 (224)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	fnaticavg 73¢	$73	$66.5	-$6.5	51% 1198-1131 (2329)
relativesignificanceCTR<$100	Astralisavg 32¢	$59.14	$61.92	+$2.77	59% 86-61 (147)
SP spartachioCTR<$100	Astralisavg 28¢	$37.49	$44.85	+$7.36	48% 687-736 (1423)

Reformedx

fnatic

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$170

Record

52%

769-714 (1483)

lonmi2511

fnatic

Invested

$908.47

Value

$782.25

PnL

-$126.21

Record

63%

1045-602 (1647)

jessy2CTR

Astralis

Invested

$3,612.09

Value

$760.3

PnL

+$233.21

Record

54%

90-77 (167)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR<$100

Astralis

Invested

$94.1

Value

$97.9

PnL

+$3.8

Record

55%

124-100 (224)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

fnatic

Invested

$73

Value

$66.5

PnL

-$6.5

Record

51%

1198-1131 (2329)

relativesignificanceCTR<$100

Astralis

Invested

$59.14

Value

$61.92

PnL

+$2.77

Record

59%

86-61 (147)

spartachioCTR<$100

Astralis

Invested

$37.49

Value

$44.85

PnL

+$7.36

Record

48%

687-736 (1423)

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that fnatic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.