Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold fnatic, while the market favors Astralis (55%). 4 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold fnatic (29%) · fnatic at 46¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 27

Astralis55¢fnatic45¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

fnatic

Consensus Traders

fnatic 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

-$727.62

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 45.5¢

-8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

4 of 14 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Astralis 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Astralis55%

fnatic46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

fnatic4 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares15,428

Combined PnL-$934.52

Astralis10 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares7,566

Combined PnL+$206.9

fnatic — 29%Astralis — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IV Ivan948CTR	fnaticavg 47.6¢	$3.7K	$3.5K	-$162.27	45% 47-57 (104)
JO JohnnyWinsCTR	fnaticavg 52.9¢	$3.2K	$2.5K	-$718.84	42% 114-159 (273)
RN1	Astralisavg 52.7¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$50.95	54% 55325-47376 (102701)
PN pnhct	Astralisavg 53.9¢	$618.93	$625.55	+$6.62	54% 440-376 (816)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Astralisavg 54.8¢	$534.55	$528.74	-$5.81	52% 13483-12339 (25822)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR	fnaticavg 44.5¢	$552.84	$509.22	-$43.62	46% 878-1048 (1926)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	Astralisavg 48¢	$334.22	$410.88	+$76.66	55% 125-102 (227)
MR MrConsistency	Astralisavg 55¢	$299.99	$297.26	-$2.73	39% 540-833 (1373)
poshposh	Astralisavg 49¢	$227.39	$273.8	+$46.41	60% 9092-6016 (15108)
BI BillBenter2026	Astralisavg 54¢	$199.8	$201.65	+$1.85	58% 18301-13450 (31751)
BA BAPEHUK	Astralisavg 52¢	$520	$199.86	+$28.17	49% 397-411 (808)
GR GroolCTR	fnaticavg 47.9¢	$191.8	$182	-$9.8	54% 1584-1368 (2952)
CH chillhouse123ARB<$100	Astralisavg 53¢	$120	$122.36	+$2.36	52% 3664-3321 (6985)
└ Astralis leg	Astralisavg 53¢	$60	$61.7	+$1.7
└ fnatic leg	fnaticavg 45¢	$60	$60.67	+$0.67
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Astralisavg 54¢	$54	$53.5	-$0.5	51% 1203-1134 (2337)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Astralisavg 48¢	$23.01	$28.28	+$5.27	49% 18399-18822 (37221)

Ivan948CTR

fnatic

Invested

$3,691.13

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$162.27

Record

45%

47-57 (104)

JohnnyWinsCTR

fnatic

Invested

$3,191.06

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$718.84

Record

42%

114-159 (273)

RN1

Astralis

Invested

$1,869.39

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$50.95

Record

54%

55325-47376 (102701)

pnhct

Astralis

Invested

$618.93

Value

$625.55

PnL

+$6.62

Record

54%

440-376 (816)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Astralis

Invested

$534.55

Value

$528.74

PnL

-$5.81

Record

52%

13483-12339 (25822)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR

fnatic

Invested

$552.84

Value

$509.22

PnL

-$43.62

Record

46%

878-1048 (1926)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Astralis

Invested

$334.22

Value

$410.88

PnL

+$76.66

Record

55%

125-102 (227)

MrConsistency

Astralis

Invested

$299.99

Value

$297.26

PnL

-$2.73

Record

39%

540-833 (1373)

poshposh

Astralis

Invested

$227.39

Value

$273.8

PnL

+$46.41

Record

60%

9092-6016 (15108)

BillBenter2026

Astralis

Invested

$199.8

Value

$201.65

PnL

+$1.85

Record

58%

18301-13450 (31751)

BAPEHUK

Astralis

Invested

$520

Value

$199.86

PnL

+$28.17

Record

49%

397-411 (808)

GroolCTR

fnatic

Invested

$191.8

Value

$182

PnL

-$9.8

Record

54%

1584-1368 (2952)

chillhouse123ARB<$100

Astralis

Invested

$120

Value

$122.36

PnL

+$2.36

Record

52%

3664-3321 (6985)

Both legs:

Astralis$6053¢+$1.7

fnatic$6045¢+$0.67

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Astralis

Invested

$54

Value

$53.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

51%

1203-1134 (2337)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Astralis

Invested

$23.01

Value

$28.28

PnL

+$5.27

Record

49%

18399-18822 (37221)

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

4 of 14 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Astralis 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that fnatic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.