Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic - Map 1 Winner

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold fnatic (38%) · fnatic at 100¢ · $33K held · ends Oct 27

Astralis<1¢fnatic>99¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

fnatic

Consensus Traders

fnatic 38%

Total Value

$33.1K

Combined PnL

$661.81

Smart Money Entry

92.1¢ → 100¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Astralis0%

fnatic100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

fnatic5 traders

Total Value$27.4K

Total Shares27,615

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Astralis8 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares13,424

Combined PnL$-1.2K

fnatic — 38%Astralis — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousPerson	fnaticavg 99.9¢	$17.4K	$17.4K	+$8.72	95% 2206-115 (2321)
PN pnhct	fnaticavg 89.2¢	$4.9K	$4.7K	-$184.88	54% 440-376 (816)
AA aaaa298	fnaticavg 63.9¢	$8.1K	$3.2K	+$2.0K	58% 727-522 (1249)
RN1CTR	Astralisavg 37.5¢	$3.6K	$1.9K	$-1.7K	54% 55325-47376 (102701)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	fnaticavg 78.2¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$183.63	52% 13483-12339 (25822)
VE veliMaxCTR	Astralisavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$92.28	64% 46-26 (72)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Astralisavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$47.19	48% 19-21 (40)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Astralisavg 24¢	$552	$1.1K	+$529	51% 1203-1134 (2337)
BI BillBenter2026	fnaticavg 76.4¢	$396.62	$275.07	-$121.55	58% 18301-13450 (31751)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	Astralisavg 47¢	$134.4	$150.4	+$16	55% 125-102 (227)
poshposhCTR<$100	Astralisavg 45.9¢	$55.25	$56.58	+$1.34	60% 9092-6016 (15108)
JO johnsonboyyCTR<$100	Astralisavg 40¢	$29.69	$34.89	+$7.05	44% 35-45 (80)
noreasapaCTR<$100	Astralisavg 1.1¢	$1.89	$1.81	-$0.09	92% 3532-325 (3857)

AnonymousPerson

fnatic

Invested

$17,418.31

Value

$17.4K

PnL

+$8.72

Record

95%

2206-115 (2321)

pnhct

fnatic

Invested

$4,889.65

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$184.88

Record

54%

440-376 (816)

aaaa298

fnatic

Invested

$8,061.15

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

58%

727-522 (1249)

RN1CTR

Astralis

Invested

$3,572.25

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

54%

55325-47376 (102701)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

fnatic

Invested

$1,536.05

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$183.63

Record

52%

13483-12339 (25822)

veliMaxCTR

Astralis

Invested

$1,537.94

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$92.28

Record

64%

46-26 (72)

luckycat888888CTR

Astralis

Invested

$1,156.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$47.19

Record

48%

19-21 (40)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Astralis

Invested

$552

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$529

Record

51%

1203-1134 (2337)

BillBenter2026

fnatic

Invested

$396.62

Value

$275.07

PnL

-$121.55

Record

58%

18301-13450 (31751)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

Astralis

Invested

$134.4

Value

$150.4

PnL

+$16

Record

55%

125-102 (227)

poshposhCTR<$100

Astralis

Invested

$55.25

Value

$56.58

PnL

+$1.34

Record

60%

9092-6016 (15108)

johnsonboyyCTR<$100

Astralis

Invested

$29.69

Value

$34.89

PnL

+$7.05

Record

44%

35-45 (80)

noreasapaCTR<$100

Astralis

Invested

$1.89

Value

$1.81

PnL

-$0.09

Record

92%

3532-325 (3857)

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that fnatic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.