Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Noir Verse, while the market favors Alliance (67%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #12 Playoffs

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Noir Verse (71%) · Noir Verse at 34¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Alliance67¢Noir Verse33¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Noir Verse

Consensus Traders

Noir Verse 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$141.56

Smart Money Entry

32.3¢ → 33.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNoir Verse at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Noir Verse

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Alliance 67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alliance67%

Noir Verse34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Noir Verse5 traders

Total Value$800.4

Total Shares1,619

Combined PnL+$155.17

Alliance2 traders

Total Value$205.38

Total Shares297

Combined PnL-$13.61

Noir Verse — 71%Alliance — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Noir Verseavg 27.8¢	$204.17	$276.64	+$72.46	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
NO NotJumpCTR	Noir Verseavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0	52% 833-779 (1612)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Allianceavg 74¢	$214.6	$201.55	-$13.05	38% 550-887 (1437)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	Allianceavg 64.4¢	$167.34	$193.18	+$25.84	36% 75-132 (207)
└ Alliance leg	Allianceavg 64.4¢	$112.61	$116.23	+$3.62
└ Noir Verse leg	Noir Verseavg 23.8¢	$54.73	$76.96	+$22.22
31 319113331313111CTR	Noir Verseavg 30.8¢	$682.93	$189.09	+$65.34	57% 181-139 (320)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Allianceavg 64.6¢	$178.04	$185.09	+$7.04	61% 164-107 (271)
└ Noir Verse leg	Noir Verseavg 34.5¢	$73.15	$96.55	+$23.4
└ Alliance leg	Allianceavg 64.6¢	$104.9	$88.54	-$16.36
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Noir Verseavg 31¢	$40.84	$54.62	+$13.79	61% 1427-910 (2337)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noir Verseavg 21.5¢	$13.98	$17.55	+$3.57	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Allianceavg 67¢	$4.39	$3.83	-$0.56	63% 214-128 (342)

topdogbigboiCTR

Noir Verse

Invested

$204.17

Value

$276.64

PnL

+$72.46

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

NotJumpCTR

Noir Verse

Invested

$262.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Alliance

Invested

$214.6

Value

$201.55

PnL

-$13.05

Record

38%

550-887 (1437)

calculate10ARB<$100

Alliance

Invested

$167.34

Value

$193.18

PnL

+$25.84

Record

36%

75-132 (207)

Both legs:

Alliance$112.6164.4¢+$3.62

Noir Verse$54.7323.8¢+$22.22

319113331313111CTR

Noir Verse

Invested

$682.93

Value

$189.09

PnL

+$65.34

Record

57%

181-139 (320)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Alliance

Invested

$178.04

Value

$185.09

PnL

+$7.04

Record

61%

164-107 (271)

Both legs:

Noir Verse$73.1534.5¢+$23.4

Alliance$104.964.6¢-$16.36

shiifooCTR<$100

Noir Verse

Invested

$40.84

Value

$54.62

PnL

+$13.79

Record

61%

1427-910 (2337)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Noir Verse

Invested

$13.98

Value

$17.55

PnL

+$3.57

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

thatsabing0<$100

Alliance

Invested

$4.39

Value

$3.83

PnL

-$0.56

Record

63%

214-128 (342)

Research grade

NeutralNoir Verse at 34%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Noir Verse

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Alliance 67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Noir Verse wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.