Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Four Magic (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #12 Group A

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Alliance (56%) · Alliance at 97¢ · $984 held · ends Nov 12

Alliance97¢Four Magic3¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alliance

Consensus Traders

Alliance 56%

Total Value

$983.81

Combined PnL

$18.25

Smart Money Entry

92.4¢ → 96.9¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlliance at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alliance

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alliance97%

Four Magic3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alliance5 traders

Total Value$908.4

Total Shares982

Combined PnL-$1.67

Four Magic4 traders

Total Value$75.41

Total Shares1,007

Combined PnL+$19.92

Alliance — 56%Four Magic — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA calculate10	Allianceavg 92.8¢	$464.25	$458.25	-$6	27% 43-116 (159)
GA Gaditima	Allianceavg 91.7¢	$318.24	$319.24	+$1	46% 158-182 (340)
PA Pan9X<$100	Allianceavg 92.7¢	$78.87	$65.11	+$0.6	49% 1071-1128 (2199)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f<$100	Allianceavg 91.8¢	$54	$56.7	+$2.7	64% 93-53 (146)
31 319113331313111CTR<$100	Four Magicavg 6.3¢	$30.12	$34.32	+$4.2	57% 104-80 (184)
38 38791873984189CTR	Four Magicavg 5.1¢	$423.73	$26.83	+$11.16	48% 2153-2339 (4492)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Four Magicavg 5.1¢	$7.68	$11.22	+$3.54	37% 527-909 (1436)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Allianceavg 93.2¢	$9.06	$9.09	+$0.03	66% 135-70 (205)
poshposhCTR<$100	Four Magicavg 5¢	$2.03	$3.04	+$1.01	47% 509-574 (1083)

calculate10

Alliance

Invested

$464.25

Value

$458.25

PnL

-$6

Record

27%

43-116 (159)

Gaditima

Alliance

Invested

$318.24

Value

$319.24

PnL

+$1

Record

46%

158-182 (340)

Pan9X<$100

Alliance

Invested

$78.87

Value

$65.11

PnL

+$0.6

Record

49%

1071-1128 (2199)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f<$100

Alliance

Invested

$54

Value

$56.7

PnL

+$2.7

Record

64%

93-53 (146)

319113331313111CTR<$100

Four Magic

Invested

$30.12

Value

$34.32

PnL

+$4.2

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

38791873984189CTR

Four Magic

Invested

$423.73

Value

$26.83

PnL

+$11.16

Record

48%

2153-2339 (4492)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Four Magic

Invested

$7.68

Value

$11.22

PnL

+$3.54

Record

37%

527-909 (1436)

thatsabing0<$100

Alliance

Invested

$9.06

Value

$9.09

PnL

+$0.03

Record

66%

135-70 (205)

poshposhCTR<$100

Four Magic

Invested

$2.03

Value

$3.04

PnL

+$1.01

Record

47%

509-574 (1083)

Research grade

NeutralAlliance at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Alliance

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alliance wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.