Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs NEXVOID (BO3) - DFRAG Invitational Playoffs

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Alter Ego (88%) · Alter Ego at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 31

Alter Ego>99¢NEXVOID<1¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alter Ego

Consensus Traders

Alter Ego 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$254.67

Smart Money Entry

73.8¢ → 100¢

+35% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlter Ego at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alter Ego

7 of 8 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Alter Ego100%

NEXVOID0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alter Ego7 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares8,208

Combined PnL+$269.43

NEXVOID1 trader

Total Value$0.05

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$14.75

Alter Ego — 88%NEXVOID — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO Rock.San	Alter Egoavg 99.9¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$1.76	89% 11989-1415 (13404)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Alter Egoavg 56.3¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$93.5	53% 2408-2094 (4502)
AO aomendushen008	Alter Egoavg 33¢	$510	$897.77	+$387.77	50% 940-923 (1863)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Alter Egoavg 36.7¢	$410.44	$723.05	+$312.61	49% 7902-8215 (16117)
└ Alter Ego leg	Alter Egoavg 36.7¢	$233.94	$520.14	+$286.2
└ NEXVOID leg	NEXVOIDavg 16.1¢	$176.5	$202.91	+$26.41
TE testBruno2	Alter Egoavg 77.7¢	$2.9K	$398.51	-$307.71	58% 873-632 (1505)
0X 0x4f2ARB<$100	Alter Egoavg 68.5¢	$431.52	$379.33	-$52.19	52% 9155-8547 (17702)
└ Alter Ego leg	Alter Egoavg 68.5¢	$295.61	$278.24	-$17.37
└ NEXVOID leg	NEXVOIDavg 47.7¢	$135.91	$101.09	-$34.82
poshposh	Alter Egoavg 56.3¢	$276.31	$373.56	+$97.26	59% 10128-7124 (17252)
US User7429<$100	Alter Egoavg 73.3¢	$46.8	$38.55	-$3.65	55% 8297-6693 (14990)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Alter Egoavg 44¢	$4.4	$4.9	+$0.5	59% 30461-21177 (51638)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	NEXVOIDavg 16.4¢	$14.8	$0.05	-$14.75	60% 3347-2258 (5605)

Rock.San

Alter Ego

Invested

$3,525.14

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.76

Record

89%

11989-1415 (13404)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Alter Ego

Invested

$2,753.07

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$93.5

Record

53%

2408-2094 (4502)

aomendushen008

Alter Ego

Invested

$510

Value

$897.77

PnL

+$387.77

Record

50%

940-923 (1863)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Alter Ego

Invested

$410.44

Value

$723.05

PnL

+$312.61

Record

49%

7902-8215 (16117)

Both legs:

Alter Ego$233.9436.7¢+$286.2

NEXVOID$176.516.1¢+$26.41

testBruno2

Alter Ego

Invested

$2,859.23

Value

$398.51

PnL

-$307.71

Record

58%

873-632 (1505)

0x4f2ARB<$100

Alter Ego

Invested

$431.52

Value

$379.33

PnL

-$52.19

Record

52%

9155-8547 (17702)

Both legs:

Alter Ego$295.6168.5¢-$17.37

NEXVOID$135.9147.7¢-$34.82

poshposh

Alter Ego

Invested

$276.31

Value

$373.56

PnL

+$97.26

Record

59%

10128-7124 (17252)

User7429<$100

Alter Ego

Invested

$46.8

Value

$38.55

PnL

-$3.65

Record

55%

8297-6693 (14990)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Alter Ego

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.5

Record

59%

30461-21177 (51638)

shiifooCTR<$100

NEXVOID

Invested

$14.8

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$14.75

Record

60%

3347-2258 (5605)

Research grade

NeutralAlter Ego at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Alter Ego

7 of 8 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alter Ego wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.