Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs FlyQuest (BO3) - DFRAG Invitational Playoffs
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold FlyQuest (83%) · FlyQuest at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
FlyQuest
6
FlyQuest 83%
$2.5K
-$11.91
73.8¢ → 99.5¢
+35% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralFlyQuest at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XY Xyp9xFan | FlyQuestavg 75¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$9.54 | 55% 464-383 (847) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | FlyQuestavg 72.5¢ | $770.75 | $776.64 | +$5.89 | 53% 2359-2078 (4437) |
 poshposh | FlyQuestavg 67.6¢ | $170.17 | $204.49 | +$34.32 | 59% 9885-6859 (16744) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Alter Egoavg 12.9¢ | $59.81 | $16.19 | -$43.62 | 39% 3159-4962 (8121) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | FlyQuestavg 64¢ | $6.41 | $7.46 | +$1.05 | 59% 30350-21049 (51399) |
 Satanishippie<$100 | FlyQuestavg 91¢ | $1 | $0.99 | -$0.01 | 48% 312-335 (647) |
Invested
$1,481.53
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$9.54
Record
55%
464-383 (847)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$770.75
Value
$776.64
PnL
+$5.89
Record
53%
2359-2078 (4437)
poshposhInvested
$170.17
Value
$204.49
PnL
+$34.32
Record
59%
9885-6859 (16744)
Invested
$59.81
Value
$16.19
PnL
-$43.62
Record
39%
3159-4962 (8121)
Invested
$6.41
Value
$7.46
PnL
+$1.05
Record
59%
30350-21049 (51399)
Satanishippie<$100Invested
$1
Value
$0.99
PnL
-$0.01
Record
48%
312-335 (647)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.