Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs Abyssal - Map 1 Winner

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Alter Ego (83%) · Alter Ego at 100¢ · $687 held · ends Oct 30

Alter Ego>99¢Abyssal<1¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alter Ego

Consensus Traders

Alter Ego 83%

Total Value

$686.7

Combined PnL

$62.34

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlter Ego at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alter Ego

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Alter Ego100%

Abyssal0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alter Ego5 traders

Total Value$680.97

Total Shares740

Combined PnL+$61.85

Abyssal1 trader

Total Value$5.74

Total Shares60

Combined PnL+$0.49

Alter Ego — 83%Abyssal — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Alter Egoavg 78¢	$262.03	$279.28	+$17.25	53% 2350-2073 (4423)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Alter Egoavg 64¢	$104.15	$126.94	+$22.78	59% 30251-20955 (51206)
0X 0x4f2	Alter Egoavg 74.6¢	$104.55	$114.08	+$9.53	52% 9124-8523 (17647)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5	Alter Egoavg 69.7¢	$93.43	$104.52	+$11.09	—
TE testBruno2	Alter Egoavg 86.4¢	$211.27	$56.15	+$1.2	57% 839-623 (1462)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Abyssalavg 8.7¢	$5.25	$5.74	+$0.49	—

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Alter Ego

Invested

$262.03

Value

$279.28

PnL

+$17.25

Record

53%

2350-2073 (4423)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Alter Ego

Invested

$104.15

Value

$126.94

PnL

+$22.78

Record

59%

30251-20955 (51206)

0x4f2

Alter Ego

Invested

$104.55

Value

$114.08

PnL

+$9.53

Record

52%

9124-8523 (17647)

0x0d2d...7ff5

Alter Ego

Invested

$93.43

Value

$104.52

PnL

+$11.09

Record

—

testBruno2

Alter Ego

Invested

$211.27

Value

$56.15

PnL

+$1.2

Record

57%

839-623 (1462)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Abyssal

Invested

$5.25

Value

$5.74

PnL

+$0.49

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralAlter Ego at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Alter Ego

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alter Ego wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.