Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Saint Sinners, while the market favors Acend (77%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Acend vs Saint Sinners (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 Playoffs

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Saint Sinners (50%) · Saint Sinners at 23¢ · $859 held · ends Oct 29

Acend77¢Saint Sinners23¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Saint Sinners

Consensus Traders

Saint Sinners 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$858.57

Combined PnL

$152.28

Smart Money Entry

38.3¢ → 23¢

-40% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidSaint Sinners at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saint Sinners

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Acend 77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Acend77%

Saint Sinners23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saint Sinners2 traders

Total Value$669.33

Total Shares1,339

Combined PnL+$157.08

Acend2 traders

Total Value$23.5

Total Shares47

Combined PnL-$4.8

Saint Sinners — 50%Acend — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE legitgameCTR	Saint Sinnersavg 36.9¢	$450	$609.33	+$159.33	57% 243-187 (430)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Saint Sinnersavg 40¢	$124.56	$114.46	-$10.09	53% 2325-2060 (4385)
└ Saint Sinners leg	Saint Sinnersavg 40¢	$73.41	$65.11	-$8.3
└ Acend leg	Acendavg 66.8¢	$51.15	$49.35	-$1.79
1am1bCTR<$100	Saint Sinnersavg 51.9¢	$62.25	$60	-$2.25	55% 184-149 (333)
poshposhARB<$100	Acendavg 59¢	$47.39	$51.28	+$3.89	59% 9678-6667 (16345)
└ Acend leg	Acendavg 59¢	$27.25	$28.18	+$0.92
└ Saint Sinners leg	Saint Sinnersavg 34¢	$20.14	$23.1	+$2.96
AS astapzippo<$100	Acendavg 60¢	$22.2	$18.5	-$3.7	56% 2138-1681 (3819)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Acendavg 61¢	$6.1	$5	-$1.1	49% 18820-19225 (38045)

legitgameCTR

Saint Sinners

Invested

$450

Value

$609.33

PnL

+$159.33

Record

57%

243-187 (430)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Saint Sinners

Invested

$124.56

Value

$114.46

PnL

-$10.09

Record

53%

2325-2060 (4385)

Both legs:

Saint Sinners$73.4140¢-$8.3

Acend$51.1566.8¢-$1.79

1am1bCTR<$100

Saint Sinners

Invested

$62.25

Value

$60

PnL

-$2.25

Record

55%

184-149 (333)

poshposhARB<$100

Acend

Invested

$47.39

Value

$51.28

PnL

+$3.89

Record

59%

9678-6667 (16345)

Both legs:

Acend$27.2559¢+$0.92

Saint Sinners$20.1434¢+$2.96

astapzippo<$100

Acend

Invested

$22.2

Value

$18.5

PnL

-$3.7

Record

56%

2138-1681 (3819)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Acend

Invested

$6.1

Value

PnL

-$1.1

Record

49%

18820-19225 (38045)

Research grade

AvoidSaint Sinners at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Saint Sinners

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Acend 77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saint Sinners wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.9%

23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$301.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

401.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.