Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Acend, while the market favors Butterfly (100%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Acend vs Butterfly - Map 2 Winner

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Acend (40%) · Acend at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1

Acend<1¢Butterfly>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Acend

Consensus Traders

Acend 40%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$9.13

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidAcend at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Acend

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Butterfly 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Acend0%

Butterfly100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Acend4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,602

Combined PnL-$17.71

Butterfly6 traders

Total Value$857.73

Total Shares1,516

Combined PnL+$8.58

Acend — 40%Butterfly — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
dicekingCTR	Acendavg 50¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0	58% 323-237 (560)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Butterflyavg 50¢	$599.78	$599.78	+$0	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
0X 0x4f2	Butterflyavg 49¢	$50.66	$101.99	+$51.33	52% 9163-8552 (17715)
TE testBruno2	Butterflyavg 76.4¢	$214.36	$77.76	+$11.65	58% 879-636 (1515)
46 467j6yj	Butterflyavg 99¢	$115.28	$58.22	-$57.06	97% 3333-116 (3449)
poshposhCTR<$100	Acendavg 67¢	$21.73	$20.41	-$1.32	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
VP Vps1<$100	Butterflyavg 99.9¢	$14.98	$14.98	+$0.01	95% 310-15 (325)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Butterflyavg 47¢	$2.35	$5	+$2.65	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR<$100	Acendavg 40.1¢	$5.65	$0.03	-$5.63	54% 2422-2097 (4519)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Acendavg 35.8¢	$10.78	$0.02	-$10.76	50% 19212-19597 (38809)

dicekingCTR

Acend

Invested

$1,250

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

323-237 (560)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Butterfly

Invested

$599.78

Value

$599.78

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

0x4f2

Butterfly

Invested

$50.66

Value

$101.99

PnL

+$51.33

Record

52%

9163-8552 (17715)

testBruno2

Butterfly

Invested

$214.36

Value

$77.76

PnL

+$11.65

Record

58%

879-636 (1515)

467j6yj

Butterfly

Invested

$115.28

Value

$58.22

PnL

-$57.06

Record

97%

3333-116 (3449)

poshposhCTR<$100

Acend

Invested

$21.73

Value

$20.41

PnL

-$1.32

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

Vps1<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$14.98

Value

$14.98

PnL

+$0.01

Record

95%

310-15 (325)

topdogbigboi<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$2.35

Value

PnL

+$2.65

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR<$100

Acend

Invested

$5.65

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.63

Record

54%

2422-2097 (4519)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Acend

Invested

$10.78

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$10.76

Record

50%

19212-19597 (38809)

Research grade

AvoidAcend at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Acend

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Butterfly 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Acend wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.