Counter-Strike: Acend vs Butterfly (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 Playoffs

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Acend (71%) · Acend at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1

Acend>99¢Butterfly<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Acend

Consensus Traders

Acend 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$90.03

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 100¢

+39% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAcend at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Acend

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Acend100%

Butterfly0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Acend5 traders

Total Value$799.88

Total Shares823

Combined PnL-$20.17

Butterfly2 traders

Total Value$0.08

Total Shares160

Combined PnL-$69.85

Acend — 71%Butterfly — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Acendavg 73.3¢	$785.19	$762.85	-$22.33	54% 2422-2097 (4519)
0X 0x4f2ARB<$100	Acendavg 64.1¢	$159.21	$180.75	+$21.54	52% 9163-8552 (17715)
└ Acend leg	Acendavg 64.1¢	$115.99	$142.03	+$26.04
└ Butterfly leg	Butterflyavg 24¢	$43.22	$38.72	-$4.5
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Butterflyavg 46.9¢	$194.57	$124.77	-$69.79	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
└ Acend leg	Acendavg 84.2¢	$91.41	$92.85	+$1.44
└ Butterfly leg	Butterflyavg 46.9¢	$103.16	$31.92	-$71.24
HRTrading<$100	Acendavg 52.2¢	$15.17	$18.29	+$3.12	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
AS astapzippo<$100	Acendavg 50¢	$6.95	$8.76	+$0.63	56% 2154-1704 (3858)
poshposh<$100	Acendavg 85¢	$5.67	$5.5	-$0.17	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
US User7429<$100	Acendavg 56¢	$5.9	$4.48	-$1.42	55% 8315-6706 (15021)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Butterflyavg 19.7¢	$26.98	$0.07	-$26.91	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
TE testBruno2CTR	Butterflyavg 23.1¢	$462.72	$0.02	-$42.94	58% 879-636 (1515)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Acend

Invested

$785.19

Value

$762.85

PnL

-$22.33

Record

54%

2422-2097 (4519)

0x4f2ARB<$100

Acend

Invested

$159.21

Value

$180.75

PnL

+$21.54

Record

52%

9163-8552 (17715)

Both legs:

Acend$115.9964.1¢+$26.04

Butterfly$43.2224¢-$4.5

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$194.57

Value

$124.77

PnL

-$69.79

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

Both legs:

Acend$91.4184.2¢+$1.44

Butterfly$103.1646.9¢-$71.24

HRTrading<$100

Acend

Invested

$15.17

Value

$18.29

PnL

+$3.12

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

astapzippo<$100

Acend

Invested

$6.95

Value

$8.76

PnL

+$0.63

Record

56%

2154-1704 (3858)

poshposh<$100

Acend

Invested

$5.67

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$0.17

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

User7429<$100

Acend

Invested

$5.9

Value

$4.48

PnL

-$1.42

Record

55%

8315-6706 (15021)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Butterfly

Invested

$26.98

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$26.91

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

testBruno2CTR

Butterfly

Invested

$462.72

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$42.94

Record

58%

879-636 (1515)

Research grade

NeutralAcend at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Acend

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Acend wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.