Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - DFRAG Invitational Group B

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Abyssal (43%) · Abyssal at 99¢ · $868 held · ends Oct 28

Abyssal>99¢Rooster<1¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Abyssal

Consensus Traders

Abyssal 43%

Total Value

$867.87

Combined PnL

$12.21

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 99.2¢

+60% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAbyssal at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Abyssal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Abyssal99%

Rooster1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Abyssal3 traders

Total Value$788.5

Total Shares845

Combined PnL+$18.4

Rooster4 traders

Total Value$79.37

Total Shares292

Combined PnL-$6.19

Abyssal — 43%Rooster — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Abyssalavg 58.9¢	$622.35	$642.39	+$20.05	53% 2196-1960 (4156)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Abyssalavg 70¢	$128.56	$127.64	-$0.92	59% 30063-20788 (50851)
1am1bCTR<$100	Roosteravg 50¢	$25.1	$30.87	+$5.77	56% 179-138 (317)
poshposhCTR<$100	Roosteravg 12.9¢	$28.95	$25.57	-$9.33	60% 9347-6319 (15666)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Abyssalavg 96¢	$19.2	$18.47	-$0.73	47% 2037-2339 (4376)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Roosteravg 54¢	$16.2	$12.9	-$3.3	67% 23097-11497 (34594)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Roosteravg 51.7¢	$9.36	$10.02	+$0.66	53% 3017-2681 (5698)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Abyssal

Invested

$622.35

Value

$642.39

PnL

+$20.05

Record

53%

2196-1960 (4156)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Abyssal

Invested

$128.56

Value

$127.64

PnL

-$0.92

Record

59%

30063-20788 (50851)

1am1bCTR<$100

Rooster

Invested

$25.1

Value

$30.87

PnL

+$5.77

Record

56%

179-138 (317)

poshposhCTR<$100

Rooster

Invested

$28.95

Value

$25.57

PnL

-$9.33

Record

60%

9347-6319 (15666)

ameisgoat11<$100

Abyssal

Invested

$19.2

Value

$18.47

PnL

-$0.73

Record

47%

2037-2339 (4376)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Rooster

Invested

$16.2

Value

$12.9

PnL

-$3.3

Record

67%

23097-11497 (34594)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Rooster

Invested

$9.36

Value

$10.02

PnL

+$0.66

Record

53%

3017-2681 (5698)

Research grade

NeutralAbyssal at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Abyssal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Abyssal wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.