Games Total: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
$1.1K
48.3¢ → 100¢
+107% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YI yishiwucheng | Overavg 49.1¢ | $1.2K | $2.1K | +$979.95 | 51% 1847-1776 (3623) |
 poshposhARB<$100 | Underavg 46.6¢ | $359.84 | $392.12 | +$32.28 | 58% 11421-8276 (19697) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 43.3¢ | $163.27 | $248.63 | +$85.36 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 46.6¢ | $196.57 | $143.49 | -$53.08 | |
SL SlickRick123 | Overavg 45.3¢ | $212.32 | $307.33 | +$92.91 | 46% 4532-5344 (9876) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Overavg 43.2¢ | $58.48 | $89.38 | +$30.91 | 62% 1225-749 (1974) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Overavg 48.2¢ | $19.39 | $27 | -$1.69 | 47% 7923-9023 (16946) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $9.87 | $5.64 | -$4.23 | 44% 6428-8029 (14457) |
Invested
$1,169.65
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$979.95
Record
51%
1847-1776 (3623)
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$359.84
Value
$392.12
PnL
+$32.28
Record
58%
11421-8276 (19697)
Both legs:
Invested
$212.32
Value
$307.33
PnL
+$92.91
Record
46%
4532-5344 (9876)
Invested
$58.48
Value
$89.38
PnL
+$30.91
Record
62%
1225-749 (1974)
Invested
$19.39
Value
$27
PnL
-$1.69
Record
47%
7923-9023 (16946)
Invested
$9.87
Value
$5.64
PnL
-$4.23
Record
44%
6428-8029 (14457)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.