Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold BetBoom Team, while the market favors 9z (62%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold BetBoom Team (75%) · BetBoom Team at 39¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 2

BetBoom Team39¢9z61¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BetBoom Team

Consensus Traders

BetBoom Team 75%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$22.83

Smart Money Entry

38.2¢ → 38.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBetBoom Team at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BetBoom Team

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors 9z 62%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

BetBoom Team39%

9z62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BetBoom Team6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares5,561

Combined PnL+$18.07

9z2 traders

Total Value$955.93

Total Shares1,554

Combined PnL+$4.76

BetBoom Team — 75%9z — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on BetBoom Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBetBoom Team 100% · 1

Aligned

sharp9z 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBetBoom Team 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedBetBoom Team 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000BetBoom Team 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ankaramessi10CTR	BetBoom Teamavg 39.9¢	$798.6	$770.49	-$28.11	66% 21-11 (32)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 37¢	$555	$585	+$22.5	33% 6265-12990 (19255)
HL HLEbritni	9zavg 61¢	$538.5	$542.91	+$4.41	— 11-4 (15)
relativesignificanceCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 37¢	$399.36	$415.55	+$16.19	57% 117-90 (207)
forsenxd	9zavg 61.4¢	$412.67	$413.02	+$0.34	53% 1075-939 (2014)
cruzNBACTR	BetBoom Teamavg 37.6¢	$314.38	$321.74	+$7.36	42% 412-566 (978)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 39¢	$45.18	$44.6	-$0.58	50% 19648-20016 (39664)
RA RayayaCTR<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 36¢	$10.26	$10.97	+$0.71	60% 1182-783 (1965)

ankaramessi10CTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$798.6

Value

$770.49

PnL

-$28.11

Record

66%

21-11 (32)

wokerjoesleeperCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$555

Value

$585

PnL

+$22.5

Record

33%

6265-12990 (19255)

HLEbritni

Invested

$538.5

Value

$542.91

PnL

+$4.41

Record

—

11-4 (15)

relativesignificanceCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$399.36

Value

$415.55

PnL

+$16.19

Record

57%

117-90 (207)

forsenxd

Invested

$412.67

Value

$413.02

PnL

+$0.34

Record

53%

1075-939 (2014)

cruzNBACTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$314.38

Value

$321.74

PnL

+$7.36

Record

42%

412-566 (978)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$45.18

Value

$44.6

PnL

-$0.58

Record

50%

19648-20016 (39664)

RayayaCTR<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$10.26

Value

$10.97

PnL

+$0.71

Record

60%

1182-783 (1965)

Research grade

NeutralBetBoom Team at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

BetBoom Team

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors 9z 62%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on BetBoom Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBetBoom Team 100% · 1

Aligned

sharp9z 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBetBoom Team 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedBetBoom Team 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000BetBoom Team 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BetBoom Team wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.