Counter-Strike: 9INE vs FOKUS (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #11 Playoffs

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold 9INE (55%) · 9INE at 99¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 10

9INE99¢FOKUS1¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

9INE

Consensus Traders

9INE 55%

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$280.56

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 98.5¢

+49% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

Neutral9INE at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9INE

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

9INE99%

FOKUS2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

9INE6 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares7,846

Combined PnL+$449.51

FOKUS5 traders

Total Value$108.64

Total Shares927

Combined PnL-$168.96

9INE — 55%FOKUS — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on 9INE. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on FOKUS) and the top 1000 (10 on 9INE) disagree here.

ctr9INE 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedFOKUS 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 10009INE 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
31 319113331313111	9INEavg 64.7¢	$5.7K	$5.6K	-$100.33	33% 19-38 (57)
CI cigarettes	9INEavg 91.1¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$49.98	38% 88-145 (233)
PA pauleta23	9INEavg 49.4¢	$276.24	$453.35	+$177.52	21% 56-215 (271)
PA panpidaras1	9INEavg 63¢	$197.78	$236.09	+$26.67	4% 7-183 (190)
GL glennyorkshire	9INEavg 34.2¢	$94.96	$229.16	+$134.2	52% 12-11 (23)
CA calculate10	9INEavg 48.3¢	$909.17	$139.72	+$161.47	18% 9-42 (51)
VeryLucky888CTR	FOKUSavg 61.4¢	$273.84	$42.45	-$125.61	53% 55-48 (103)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	FOKUSavg 58¢	$22.06	$27.51	+$5.45	23% 45-152 (197)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	FOKUSavg 85¢	$27.39	$19.34	-$8.06	5% 7-140 (147)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	FOKUSavg 36¢	$18.33	$12.22	-$6.11	49% 374-391 (765)
XJ xjansfsaCTR<$100	FOKUSavg 8.8¢	$41.75	$7.13	-$34.63	— 0-10 (10)

319113331313111

9INE

Invested

$5,668.89

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$100.33

Record

33%

19-38 (57)

cigarettes

9INE

Invested

$1,026.09

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$49.98

Record

38%

88-145 (233)

pauleta23

9INE

Invested

$276.24

Value

$453.35

PnL

+$177.52

Record

21%

56-215 (271)

panpidaras1

9INE

Invested

$197.78

Value

$236.09

PnL

+$26.67

Record

7-183 (190)

glennyorkshire

9INE

Invested

$94.96

Value

$229.16

PnL

+$134.2

Record

52%

12-11 (23)

calculate10

9INE

Invested

$909.17

Value

$139.72

PnL

+$161.47

Record

18%

9-42 (51)

VeryLucky888CTR

FOKUS

Invested

$273.84

Value

$42.45

PnL

-$125.61

Record

53%

55-48 (103)

sentrioCTR<$100

FOKUS

Invested

$22.06

Value

$27.51

PnL

+$5.45

Record

23%

45-152 (197)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

FOKUS

Invested

$27.39

Value

$19.34

PnL

-$8.06

Record

7-140 (147)

38791873984189CTR<$100

FOKUS

Invested

$18.33

Value

$12.22

PnL

-$6.11

Record

49%

374-391 (765)

xjansfsaCTR<$100

FOKUS

Invested

$41.75

Value

$7.13

PnL

-$34.63

Record

—

0-10 (10)

Research grade

Neutral9INE at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9INE

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on 9INE. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on FOKUS) and the top 1000 (10 on 9INE) disagree here.

ctr9INE 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedFOKUS 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 10009INE 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 9INE wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.