Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold 5star, while the market favors 1WIN (70%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Map Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs 5star (+1.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold 5star (80%) · 5star at 31¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
5star
5
5star 80%
$9.0K
$606.76
28.4¢ → 30.5¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Neutral5star at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors 1WIN 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on 5star. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LL lllllllIlllCTR | 5staravg 28¢ | $5.4K | $6.0K | +$576.71 | 54% 302-256 (558) |
 JohnLKellyJr | 1WINavg 68.3¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$22.4 | 52% 1243-1129 (2372) |
 SatanishippieCTR | 5staravg 32¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 49% 320-339 (659) |
JO johnsonboyyCTR | 5staravg 29¢ | $237.22 | $261.76 | +$16.36 | 43% 40-53 (93) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | 5staravg 32.9¢ | $73.33 | $71.31 | -$8.71 | 38% 417-667 (1084) |
Invested
$5,382.62
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$576.71
Record
54%
302-256 (558)
JohnLKellyJrInvested
$2,140.11
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$22.4
Record
52%
1243-1129 (2372)
SatanishippieCTRInvested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
320-339 (659)
Invested
$237.22
Value
$261.76
PnL
+$16.36
Record
43%
40-53 (93)
Invested
$73.33
Value
$71.31
PnL
-$8.71
Record
38%
417-667 (1084)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.